Mick, you want me to make a bet on a position that I never took.
Understand that there is a middle ground between winning the nomimation and not making any statistical showing. That’s where I’m at, so if you came up with a bet reflecting that (don’t ask me how), then, perhaps I’d be in.
I was thinking about the issue some more, and I realized the following:
The conventional wisdom right now is that the Reps simply aren’t going to win the election, no matter who they run. So it’s a given win for the Dems, right? But consider that the two primary Democratic candidates are a woman and an Uncle Tom who went to Harvard. The woman is not just any woman, it’s Hillary Clinton.
Is the US voting population going to elect it’s first female president at this point? I strongly doubt it, especially if that woman is Hillary. Too many people are already polarized against her. Clinton will NOT be the next president, of this I am sure.
So what about Obama? He may be the least-polarizing candidate. However, he’s also an African-American liberal populist. I don’t think he’ll win because I don’t seem him capable of pulling votes from the right-wing base. He does have a better chance than Hillary, though.
As for the mainstream Republican candidates, it’s going to be Romney, unless he pulls a Dean. I have a strong gut instinct about this. I’m from Mass, so I already know who the guy is. And soon, so will everyone else. He’ll emerge as the front-runner among the “establishment” candidates on the right. Rudy is too iffy and turns too many people off, similar to Hillary, and McCain is too much of a neocon hawk to attract moderate and liberal votes.
Romney governs one of the most liberal states in the Union and is his pet issue is universal healthcare. He has the best chance and is the only serious threat to Ron Paul on the right. He has good hair, warm charisma and just a little bit of a JFK quality to him. The public will catch on unless he fucks up somehow.
What about Ron Paul? He’s the wildcard. He could pull votes from just about ANYBODY except for the neocons. And this entire election is going to be reaction to 8 years of neocon rule. Are we about to elect ANOTHER neocon to office? I doubt it, and even Republican analysts agree, which is why they are ready to give up already. They have not considered the possibility of an ANTI-NEOCON candidate coming from the right.
If ever a libertarian/paleo-conservative candidate could be elected, this is the time. This is the last chance. There you have it. Ron Paul in 2008.