Well the currency crisis will jump around - Euro, Yen, then USD. I do not trade currencies or sovereigns, but I find it hard to try to fathom how this does NOT happen. When it goes, the entire curve will just implode, won’t matter if you’re in bills, notes, or bonds.
I never, ever, try to predict an average of 30, 500, or 2,000 equities. We aim to be market neutral, so we buy what we believe are undervalued equities and short what we believe are overvalued equities.
I feel I have a tremendous advantage doing deep dives into my part of the sandbox, but if I tried to predict where the S&P would go I’d immediately lose all edge, so I would never do that. Gun to my head wild guess? More likely to be higher than lower regardless of unemployment. Look, central banks are accommodating fiscal instruments, they exist to print money to finance governments because voters are too stupid to understand inflation is a tax. So if you look at the fact government is a cancer that never shrinks, and the fact tax receipts to GDP are pro forma never outside a three percentage point band, you know debt will go up. Additionally, this debt will never have enough demand for it absent money printing. So tying it all together, there is no chance in hell any central bank balance sheet shrinks, so they’ll continue to print to buy sovereigns, more debt will have low or negative yields, therefore equities will look that much better while there’s an ocean of liquidity created. These conditions suggest that equities could appreciate meaningfully.
And I’ll continue to reject it going forward. Please feel free to wear your mask 24/7, hide in your house terrified of a virus, and social distance from everyone around you. It’s the Liberal American way.
What about all the non liberals who aren’t fucktards like you and are listening to doctors?
My point thought was you said these people are expendable to liberals while you clearly take actions that can endanger others. I’m not terrified of a virus anymore than any other safety precaution. I’m just not a fucking idiot.
I’d be very nervous about shorting the market right now, despite the poor fundamentals. Two reasons: the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent - and don’t fight the Fed.
I think central banks are going to keep pumping liquidity which will “artificially” keep markets high, but they will still reprice at some point. Trying to time that right feels like nothing more than a very, very risky gamble to me.
You said libertarianism doesn’t work, I cited the most capitalistic country on Earth. You’re right though, better we have mommy government, comprised of a bunch of failures that never had real jobs, micromanage everyone’s lives.
The comment wasn’t regarding capitalism, nor the financial aspects of libertarian ideals, though the Caymans have an awfully heavy handed govt if you ask a real libertarian haha.
It was more along the lines of having to trust each other to not press the big red button that kills us all, but because of “muh freedom”, we have people (like that poster) who will press it to rebel against common sense and in the process, kill us all.
In fairness, I was talking about the social implications of pure libertarianism in a “financial” thread, so my bad.
I just like to throw Somalia out when I hear silly arguments that equate a successful country to their placement on the capitalism to communism scale. Usually the example given is Venezuela and that if our government does X, and / or Y social thing, we will be on a slippery slope to be like Venezuela.
