Predictions? Let's Have It!

I could not agree more.

You mean guys that do not take a direct interest in the day to day operations. They don’t read briefing papers, they overlook the detail, they take plenty of vacations and take forever to actually make a decision…those types?

Guys like Barack Obama you mean–RIGHT?

Dude, I’m not partisan. Foreign policy-wise, Obama suffered from “paralysis by analysis”, and was unable to change the foreign policy paradigm and the inherited system of alliances and engagements. So the logical extension of this are prevarications, promises not followed through, half assed compromises (support/don’t support the Kurds, for example).

With Trump it’s the opposite problem - unable to make clear, snap judgments he’ll either grow bored of the nuances of specific geopolitical problems or end up being manipulated by foreign governments to do their bidding by painting a black-and-white picture for him (I elaborated before why “destroying ISIS” is actually a very complex and formidable task)

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The night of the election, as the battleground states were going to Trump one by one, I thought to myself, this guy is either the biggest idiot to ever enter politics or he has a hidden genius. I am still wondering lol.

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Aren’t we all…

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I agree save for the drug companies…They are ridiculously profitable and that is where most of the butt-hurt comes from. It trickles down through all the rest. Allowing drug competition from competent foreign companies will go a looooong way to reducing cost.

Pure conjecture on your part. Your negative prognostication says more about what you think of him than the reality of what he will actually do.

But time will certainly tell won’t it?

There are two sides to the foreign drug companies coin, and its seems really hard to get to the truth of it.

The counterargument to what you are saying is that drugs are expensive because of development costs. Allowing foreign drug companies to sell cheap knockoffs will just remove all incentive for drug innovation. That’s not true in all cases or for all drugs, but it is also true in some cases, probably.

Not sure how to address that.

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It is a really complex problem for certain. Development costs have skyrocketed in the past 10-15 years, which works against pat’s position and which I am keen on containing. However that’s still only part of the problem.

You could still enforce patents just the same as with domestic companies. Any foreign company would still be subject to the same FDA approval. A big problem is the barriers to entry for certain drug manufacturing. Companies can get a way with a 500% price increase on a non patented drug because as soon as a competitor tries to enter they can cut the price.

My sense of Trump is that he will have the military analyze the situation and request courses of action based on degrees of success and then make a decision based on that. Trump delegates. That’s what he’s always done.
He certainly cannot screw it up worse than obama did. The Syria situation is the worst possible case scenario. So we will see.

Obama’s biggest mistake started at the Red Line. Not only for lacking authoritative definitive action, but because he gave the Russians an in, without them having to be aggressive. That, as was predicted, legitimized Russia’s involvement and next thing you know, they plant their flag and have troops and equipment there threatening us rather than cooperating with us… Good move obama. College professors do not know more than your military personnel.

Be careful about thinking that, Pat…

As you said…we will see.

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Well, when it comes to Syria, it can always get worse. But it’s hard to imagine that it could have been dealt with any worse by an educated person. But yes, I do consider Syria to be Obama’s biggest blunder.
I know we disagree on the President, but it is hard to imagine in this case, that he was doing the right thing in the face of the opposition of people on his own team from the get-go.
I am not merely disagreeing with Obama on Syria, I am agreeing with people he hired to advise and work for him.

To the extent this is a problem, I’m not sure why foreign drug companies would change the calculus. They still won’t enter the market if they can’t make money doing it.

There is and has been a big hub-bub about this recently. Mylan was at the center of it for a while with the Epi-Pen, and a few other companies have been in the sites of the DOJ, but I don’t have the intellectual horsepower to cut through all of it.

It would be good to read up on though. There are a lot of complex laws and strategies at play on the subject you two are discussing.

The influx of quality foreign drugs into the marketplace would absolutely panic American drug companies. Insurance companies and consumers alike will take the cheaper alternative most of the time. If you can get Amoxicillin for $1 instead of $5, why would you even consider it?
We are not talking about drug manufacturers from banana republics, but Canada, Europe, Japan, Singapore, etc. The American companies have no competition, allowing drugs just from Canada or Europe alone would drastically drive down prices which would ripple across all of the medical community. If a hospital can get a bag of saline for $.50 instead of $50 , you can bet your sweet ass they are going to get it.

Buying the domestically produced drugs at huge discounts overseas is probably what cheeses people off the most.

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More sellers and consumers always makes for a more ideal market.

Having a much bigger global customer base helps prevent a market newcomer from being starved out. It’s doesn’t eliminate it completely but certainly restricts it. It’s alot better in my opinion than regulatory agencies deciding who gets to make how much profit.

On an entirely different note- Green Day made an appearance last night on some fat guy late night talk show.

I’m guessing we’ll see a reunion of Rage Against The Machine next. Those groups do well during republican administrations.

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It would certainly be a disruptor for them but they could still do alright. Pharma has a pretty strong sales force and I imagine they could still leverage it enough to avoid a flat low bid approach. The extra competition may even help them on an export basis.