Poll: Who Would Make a Better President, Clinton or Trump?

[smh_23]

@treco

@smh_23

Looks like it from first the few paragraphs.

So what takeaway?
Millian is a long term SVR plant to recruit businessmen for spying?
Or to develop channels to launder money through real estate purchases?
Or legitimately foster some economic ties to give some semblance of normalcy?

The catch to tying Trump politically (for me) is that this relationship goes back 9+ years. Perhaps financially quid pro quo for Trump, but not seemingly motivated by getting inside our government.

What’s your view? or link this to GeoPolitical Catchall thread if you want to burrow into deeper.

The FT investigation gives us (even more) reason to doubt Trump’s claim that he does not have business and financial ties to Russia (“I have nothing to do with Russia,” iirc). Not that we needed much more than his son’s “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets.” We would have a better idea about Trump’s possible financial entanglement with Putinites if he were to do as Clinton (and Obama, Romney, Bush, Kerry, Gore, WJ Clinton, Dole, HW Bush, etc.) did and meet the minimal standards of financial transparency that voters have been demanding of POTUS candidates for decades.

More generally, it’s just another example of our seemingly inexhaustible ability to place Trump in the same rooms as people (very reasonably) suspected of having nefarious Kremlinite motives. Just this past week, video emerged in which Trump explicitly contradicted his “I don’t know Putin” schtick. Add to this his ludicrous affinity for regurgitated Kremlin propaganda, the FSB/GRU DNC hack, WikiLeaks, every big and little detail I’ve already cited in support of the ironclad case that Trump’s Russian Problem is deadly serious. The result is a uniquely compelling argument against this candidate – one that doesn’t even come close to having an equal vis-a-vis Clinton.

[Aragorn]

@anon50325502

This actually happened to me a few months ago. Bad fried chicken & I had 3 pieces… It was probably the worst thing I’ve ever experienced in my life. I vividly remember the smell. If someone gave me the option of dealing with that for 12 hours (about how long it lasted) versus going through boot camp again, I’d take boot camp every single time.

Once as a kid sick with God knows what. The idea of death has never felt more attractive than that night of agony.

[Aragorn]

@treco

Statistics PhD comes into thread, simplifies sampling into easiest explanation possible.

Then quickly realizes to a 99% confidence level, that 0% of readers had any clue what the simplification meant.

LOL. Truth! Stats is actually a foreign language. Greek mixed with voodoo. I’m no statistics guru like him, but I’ve had some of those same kinds of experiences trying to port my topics into the real world.

[smh_23]

@smh_23

So disregard that one as barely more credible than “Clinton is a demon.”

Some indications that this might actually drop tomorrow (in Newsweek?), revolving around Trump’s being in Moscow on 6 July 1987…at the invitation of the Kremlin’s KGB-run Intourist travel agency/honeytrap factory. I know with certainty that he was in fact there at that time and under those circumstances. We’ll see. Could be a wild weekend.

[therajraj]

@smh_23

@smh_23

So disregard that one as barely more credible than “Clinton is a demon.”

Some indications that this might actually drop tomorrow (in Newsweek?), revolving around Trump’s being in Moscow on 6 July 1987…at the invitation of the Kremlin’s KGB-run Intourist travel agency/honeytrap factory. I know with certainty that he was in fact there at that time and under those circumstances. We’ll see. Could be a wild weekend.

No one will care.

It’s not interesting to the voters.

Unless it’s racial, sexual or violent nothing will change

[smh_23]

@therajraj

No one will care.

It’s not interesting to the voters.

Unless it’s racial, sexual or violent nothing will change

If it’s a honey trap, it’s sexual.

More importantly: “POTUS candidate is being blackmailed by the Kremlin” would be the biggest story in the history of American presidential elections. It would, of course, depend upon the strength of the evidence. The standard would be high. But if it were met, Trump would lose in an historic landslide.

For the record, it’s going to be very hard for Trump to win either way. Jon Ralston – the Nevada authority – on early voting in that state:

If…

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 10: Clinton by 2, 17,000 votes

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 20: Clinton by 3,000 votes

Note: Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the Comey letter, it’s almost impossible for him to win indies by 20. (Romney won indies by 7.) You see his challenge.

If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now.

[Aragorn]

@smh_23

More importantly: “POTUS candidate is being blackmailed by the Kremlin” would be the biggest story in the history of American presidential elections. It would, of course, depend upon the strength of the evidence. The standard would be high. But if it were met, Trump would lose in an historic landslide

Maybe, but then the flip side is the FBI being reported in Real Clear Politics as saying an indictment of HRC is “likely”. I mean honestly, that report ranks up there pretty high if its accurate

[smh_23]

@Aragorn

Maybe, but then the flip side is the FBI being reported in Real Clear Politics as saying an indictment of HRC is “likely”. I mean honestly, that report ranks up there pretty high if its accurate

RCP appears to have simply picked that up from Fox, which cited two unnamed sources. With Pete Williams (who is more credible than Baier by several orders of magnitude) saying that the Fox reports just aren’t true, and other reports describing a pro-Trump contingent in the FBI’s NY office (corroborated, perhaps, by the fact that Comey is said to have been assured of leaks re: the new emails tied to Weinergate), I’m inclined to doubt these anonymous sources even more than I normally do. No matter what the story, it’s always important to remember that various people and agencies use anonymous leaks to the press as a political tool and only that. I mean, Dick Cheney was was literally feeding Judith Miller anonymous chickenfeed on Wednesday and then holding up Miller’s story on the Sunday morning talk shows, saying “see, even the NY times says the aluminum tubes are for nuclear weapons.”

We shall see. The rumor mill is absolutely ablaze re: last-minute torpedoes for both candidates.

[Drew1411]

@smh_23

We shall see. The rumor mill is absolutely ablaze re: last-minute torpedoes for both candidates.

Isn’t it too late to really get the full effect from a big story? I thought it would drop Wed-Thu this week.

It seems like both candidates have made significant moves to attempt to lose the election only to have the other give them life again. Trump has the momentum right now, there will have to be a swing in the news with a dramatic new story for that to change.

[smh_23]

@Drew1411

@smh_23

We shall see. The rumor mill is absolutely ablaze re: last-minute torpedoes for both candidates.

Isn’t it too late to really get the full effect from a big story? I thought it would drop Wed-Thu this week.

It seems like both candidates have made significant moves to attempt to lose the election only to have the other give them life again. Trump has the momentum right now, there will have to be a swing in the news with a dramatic new story for that to change.

It looks to me like the tightening has leveled off with the Comey letter fully priced into the latest poll aggregates and Clinton ahead by 3-4 points.

But yeah, if I had something big I’d have dropped it yesterday. Then again, the Bush DUI was revealed on a Friday; I wouldn’t feel like I was out of the woods yet if I was either candidate.

Edit: enough people are voting on election day proper that I believe a big revelation about either candidate, even if it were to hit on Sunday, would redistribute votes enough to tip the whole thing one way or another.

[smh_23]

@smh_23

enough people are voting on election day proper that I believe a big revelation about either candidate, even if it were to hit on Sunday, would redistribute votes enough to tip the whole thing one way or another.

Worst-case scenario is that the disruption isn’t related to a fact-checked news item or oppo drop, instead looks like this (Reuters, today):

WASHINGTON – When America goes to the polls on Nov. 8, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officials, it will likely experience the culmination of a new form of information war.

A months-long campaign backed by the Russian government to undermine the credibility of the U.S. presidential election – through hacking, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns – is likely to peak on voting day, the officials said.

Russian officials deny any such effort. But current and former U.S. officials warn that hackers could post fictional evidence online of widespread voter fraud, slow the Internet to a crawl through cyber attacks and release a final tranche of hacked emails, including some that could be doctored.

“Don’t underestimate what they can do or will do. We have to be prepared,” said Leon Panetta, who served as CIA director and defense secretary in President Barack Obama’s first term. “In some ways, they are succeeding at disrupting our process. Until they pay a price, they will keep doing it.”

[Silyak]

Explosive Diarrhea is clearly better. Your mouth not designed for output while your anus is. Better to remove things from your body through a hole designed for it.

No idea how that relates to the election.