Obama's Hubris

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
181

[quote]SexMachine wrote:

[quote]Bismark wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]SexMachine wrote:
Israel could do major damage to Iran’s nuclear program if it had the political and public will and resolve and was willing to endure the international pressure, harassment and intrigues against them. All of the scientists involved would be known along with the majority of key people involved in the military nuclear program. It’s under the administration and security of the Revolutionary Guard.

If they wanted to, Israel could drastically step up their assassinations of the key players and target university departments, research facilities and test sites, front companies and government departments, Revolutionary Guard facilities and personnel and private and public individuals working on the program - missile strikes and high casualty attacks on the Revolutionary Guard and political and ecclesiastical elite.[/quote]

Just a sample of Israel’s resolve on the matter.

If the Iranians build it, it will be attacked.
[/quote]

You can’t compare the bombing of the Osirak reactor in 1981 and the Deir ez-Zor reactor in 2007 to a concerted air campaign against the Iranian nuclear program presently, which isn’t primarily constituted by a vulnerable and single above ground reactor as Iraq’s and Syria’s nuclear programs were.

“It” has already been built, and multiple times in fact.
[/quote]

Agree. I was also confused by pat’s comparison to the Osirak reactor bombing(totally incomparable) and the “if they build it” statement.[/quote]

I wasn’t “comparing” anything per se. I was demonstrating via historical event that if Israel feels sufficiently threatened by the nuclear capabilities and from an enemy state it will take even extreme measures if it must.
That’s pretty much it, not making a complicated point.

182

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]SexMachine wrote:

[quote]Bismark wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]SexMachine wrote:
Israel could do major damage to Iran’s nuclear program if it had the political and public will and resolve and was willing to endure the international pressure, harassment and intrigues against them. All of the scientists involved would be known along with the majority of key people involved in the military nuclear program. It’s under the administration and security of the Revolutionary Guard.

If they wanted to, Israel could drastically step up their assassinations of the key players and target university departments, research facilities and test sites, front companies and government departments, Revolutionary Guard facilities and personnel and private and public individuals working on the program - missile strikes and high casualty attacks on the Revolutionary Guard and political and ecclesiastical elite.[/quote]

Just a sample of Israel’s resolve on the matter.

If the Iranians build it, it will be attacked.
[/quote]

You can’t compare the bombing of the Osirak reactor in 1981 and the Deir ez-Zor reactor in 2007 to a concerted air campaign against the Iranian nuclear program presently, which isn’t primarily constituted by a vulnerable and single above ground reactor as Iraq’s and Syria’s nuclear programs were.

“It” has already been built, and multiple times in fact.
[/quote]

Agree. I was also confused by pat’s comparison to the Osirak reactor bombing(totally incomparable) and the “if they build it” statement.[/quote]

I wasn’t “comparing” anything per se. I was demonstrating via historical event that if Israel feels sufficiently threatened by the nuclear capabilities and from an enemy state it will take even extreme measures if it must.
That’s pretty much it, not making a complicated point.
[/quote]

There’s a huge difference however. The Iraqi reactor was a single, above ground facility that could be targeted with a single air strike. It was a cakewalk. By contrast, Iran’s nuclear program is spread out across multiple locations; embedded deep in the side of a mountain, deep underground bunkers that can only be penetrated by the largest bunker busters that Israel does not possess. The flight time is also much further requiring refuelling midair and they’d have to cross Saudi, Iraqi airspace etc. It’s an extremely difficult proposition.

183

[quote]SexMachine wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]SexMachine wrote:

[quote]Bismark wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]SexMachine wrote:
Israel could do major damage to Iran’s nuclear program if it had the political and public will and resolve and was willing to endure the international pressure, harassment and intrigues against them. All of the scientists involved would be known along with the majority of key people involved in the military nuclear program. It’s under the administration and security of the Revolutionary Guard.

If they wanted to, Israel could drastically step up their assassinations of the key players and target university departments, research facilities and test sites, front companies and government departments, Revolutionary Guard facilities and personnel and private and public individuals working on the program - missile strikes and high casualty attacks on the Revolutionary Guard and political and ecclesiastical elite.[/quote]

Just a sample of Israel’s resolve on the matter.

If the Iranians build it, it will be attacked.
[/quote]

You can’t compare the bombing of the Osirak reactor in 1981 and the Deir ez-Zor reactor in 2007 to a concerted air campaign against the Iranian nuclear program presently, which isn’t primarily constituted by a vulnerable and single above ground reactor as Iraq’s and Syria’s nuclear programs were.

“It” has already been built, and multiple times in fact.
[/quote]

Agree. I was also confused by pat’s comparison to the Osirak reactor bombing(totally incomparable) and the “if they build it” statement.[/quote]

I wasn’t “comparing” anything per se. I was demonstrating via historical event that if Israel feels sufficiently threatened by the nuclear capabilities and from an enemy state it will take even extreme measures if it must.
That’s pretty much it, not making a complicated point.
[/quote]

There’s a huge difference however. The Iraqi reactor was a single, above ground facility that could be targeted with a single air strike. It was a cakewalk. By contrast, Iran’s nuclear program is spread out across multiple locations; embedded deep in the side of a mountain, deep underground bunkers that can only be penetrated by the largest bunker busters that Israel does not possess. The flight time is also much further requiring refuelling midair and they’d have to cross Saudi, Iraqi airspace etc. It’s an extremely difficult proposition.[/quote]

I agree the logistics are way more difficult that was really outside the point. The question is, do you think that if it were a slam-dunk, no doubt about it Iran is making nuclear weapons and everybody knows it, that Israel would not try to take them out? I am not saying it’s easy, but you don’t think they would try?
I don’t doubt it for a second.

184

[quote]pat wrote:

I agree the logistics are way more difficult that was really outside the point.
[/quote]

Okay…

That is the case and the only people left bothering to still deny it are the Iranian press and diplomats.

I’d say there’s a very good chance they wouldn’t. There’s a great division of opinion on how to proceed in the Likud Party. The hawks have been pushing to strike immediately all along. Netanyahu has been talking tough but it’s hard to know what he’s planning. And he faces opposition in his own party. And he’s made a a number of bad decisions like the Palestinian prisoner “exchange” which was opposed by much of his own party. JB could tell you more about it than I can of course. But there’s things are never as simple as yay or nay anyway. Sometimes an operation planned and rehearsed months in advance right down to the last detail will be canceled at the last minute because of unexpected change in the weather or something. Not to mention obstructionists everywhere always wanting to wait or cancel or reschedule etc.

Maybe. Maybe they’ll just procrastinate till it’s too late and end up just trying to contain Iran.

[quote]

I don’t doubt it for a second.[/quote]

Why so sure?

Edited to fix quotes