[quote]smh_23 wrote:
[quote]Bismark wrote:
https://blackboard.angelo.edu//bbcswebdav/institution/LFA/CSS/Course%20Material/SEC6302/Readings/Lesson_3/Art.pdf
The redline that chemical weapons use would change American “calculus” in Syria represented ambiguous deterrence. Ignored is the wrong word to use. Assad gambled that he could utilize chemical weapons with no consequence. Even if no red line had been spoken of, the use of CBRN is of grave concern to the international society of states, especially so for its most powerful inhabitants, which Assad was certainly aware of. Deterrence failed. No one is disputing that. That is no fault of anyone in the American foreign policy establishment, unless the CIA’s elite “Men who stare at goats” unit were then vacationing in rural Georgia. The ensuing result of successful peaceful compellence was directly connected to the aforementioned deterrence.
Deterrence: “Do not carry out action X, for if you do, I will strike you upon the head with this club.”
The redline did not present such an explicit threat of force, but merely a change of “calculus”, which is why the qualifier ambiguous is added. Deterrence functions most effectively when it is clearly presented to potential adversaries. However, if such an explicit conditional threat was issued and avoided by the Assad regime, over 1000 tons of military grade chemical weapons would still be in danger of falling into the hands of Islamic extremists. What benefits American and international security more: the removal of a 2,000,000 lbs of military grade chemical weapons from a jihadist beehive, or the preservation of roughly 1,500 Syrian nationals? International relations is a callous endeavor informed by rational egoism, whose ethics are decidedly guided by consequentialism. While the loss of innocent life was nothing short of tragic, to choose the latter would be nothing short of weakness underpinned by naive idealism.
Compellence: “I am now going to strike you upon the head with this club until you acquiesce to my demands.”
Compellence can take a peaceful or physical form. The Assad regime’s relinquishment of its military grade chemical weapons arsenal to avoid the actualization of the threat of American punitive strikes undeniably constitutes peaceful compellence. Nothing would be gained by targeted strikes because they were not necessary to enlist the cooperation of the Assad regime. Indeed, such punishment would greatly endanger the diplomacy that made the Syrian chemical deal possible. In addition, no such threat was issued in the initial ambiguous deterrence, so the concerns of a loss of face in the absence of physical compellence are misplaced.
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Excellent post.
But the retort is forthcoming, and it’s going to knock your socks off:
"Oh yeah, well, here is a short list of shit that has nothing to do with your argument:
–Assad is still alive and killing people. Never mind that we are talking about chemical weapons diplomacy and not the end of the civil war. I am unable to reason with specificity, so take this mushy bolus of misconception, waffling, and tangential half-thoughts, and see what you can do with it, Jack! As an aside, I just wrote an article in which I rank the ten best and worst players in the NFL using data on their pole vaulting skills, passion for embroidery, blood type, and, of course, scrotal surface area. Mark Sanchez turns out to be the best QB in the history of the NFL, followed closely by Art Garfunkel.
–And chlorine was used! Never mind that the stupidity of this point has been explained to me by a handful of posters over multiple clear and well-assembled arguments to which I have never even considered responding. Never mind that what is at issue here is a stock of more than 2 million pounds of nerve and blister agents that are actual banned chemical weapons. Never mind that I cannot construct even a shitty half-argument wherein the strapping of some explosives to a common industrial and domestic agent in order to kill a few Syrian civilians constitutes an American foreign policy failure. Obama mishandled the situation because he did’t go in and empty all the factories, supermarkets, homes, and pools in the entire country of Syria. As an aside, Ronald Reagan was a terrible president, because my grandmother broke her leg during his administration, and he didn’t do anything to stop it, incompetent dick that he was."[/quote]
Explain how using chlorine gas to deliberately kill people is not a chemical attack? If it’s not a chemical attack, I am curious what you think it is?