[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]Gambit_Lost wrote:
[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]Gambit_Lost wrote:
I expect Obama to run on his record.
I expect it will be a VERY close race.
I’m also guessing a much lower turnout than last time around as both “bases” aren’t “feeling it” … 'course that could change.
“Not Bad” is hilarious. [/quote]
Lower turnout for Obama as class warfare does not sell quite as well as “hope and change.” Higher turnout for the GOP because McCain is not Romney (thankfully). And GOP voters know that this is one that can actually be won. And Obama will not run on his record as no President has ever been reelected with over 8% unemployment. He will try to make this be about Romney–Will it work? Who knows?
But I agree it will be close.[/quote]
You might be right. The tea party might actually be huge in this election, I think. They aren’t about Romney, but they’ll get people to the polls and those people will vote for Romney. I’m not so sure if Romney is not “McCain.” He certainly is to a lot of conservatives. That said, unless the tea party decides to put up a candidate (protest?), they will vote for Romney.
Is that true about no president? Where was FDR? Seems he’s the only one who faced “comparable” issues coming into office.
I agree that it will be extremely close. [/quote]
You make all relevant points. Politically McCain and Romney are both centrists, with Romney a tad more conservative to be sure. But when the average voter looks at Romney they don’t think McCain. That’s what I meant by Romney is not McCain. I heard Romney give a speech the other night and it was off the cuff, no teleprompters or script and he was really outstanding. He kept my attention and more importantly he looked Presidential doing it. That’s something that candidates like John McCain (who is a decent man) didn’t have. My point is when both Obama and Romney are standing at their respective podiums each is able to bring his own brand of charisma to the table. Now I know those who hate one or the other don’t see this. But those people have already made up their minds. The vast majority who will be deciding late (as usual) will be convinced by one or the other’s presentation skills and how they look doing it.
And you are correct regarding FDR. The unemployment rate when he won reelection in 1936 was 16.9% and 14.6% when he won his third term in 1940. With that said from that point on no President has ever won reelection with unemployment past 8%. I should have qualified my previous statement by saying “during the modern era,” or “post FDR.” My mistake.
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Yes but if employment statistics were calculated now how they were in FDR’s era they would be a lot higher.