[quote]chillain wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]chillain wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I think anyone who thinks it’s only a matter of by how much the Saints win by is the one drinking the Kool-Aid. [/quote]
I don’t disagree. Traditionally, this divisional round is where those rested home squads do well. (and if you bet football for awhile, its easy to argue both sides)
That said, the books opened at Saints by 3.5 and they’re usually not the kool-aid guys and that number hasn’t moved yet…
:)[/quote]
The books opened on Sunday night at Saints minus one. And the point spread is determined EXACTLY by the Kool-Aid drinkers. It’s simply a reflection of the way people are betting and most sports bettors have no fucking clue what they’re betting on. They’re degenerate gamblers too stupid to be good at any other game of chance, so they pick random shit out of a hat for the most part. I mean, how many of these so-called experts were predicting the Niners would even be in this position at the beginning of the year? Not many at all. The Vegas guys gave them horrible odds to earn a first-round bye and they didn’t slowly drop as more and more of these so-called experts bet on the Niners, because they weren’t betting on them.
The point spread has risen as a result of many, many of these people betting on the Saints, which means nothing. It’s at 4 right now. The whole point spread is entirely irrelevant, but I know Jim Harbaugh will use it and anything else he can to further the us vs. them mentality that the Niners have had all year. It’s the only reason it’s relevant in any game.
How many oddsmakers and gamblers were picking the Giants to win the Series last year? Not many. How many picked the Cardinals to win it this year? Even less. How many picked the Giants to beat the Patriots a few years ago? Not many. Shit, I remember when the Niners went into the 1988 Championship game at Chicago. They were double-digit underdogs, which is huge in a Championship Game. No one gave them a chance. Game-time temperature was 23-below. And the Niners rolled them 28-3. So it just goes to show that anyone who points to the point spread as anything but a sign that most people think you won’t win doesn’t know shit. It means nothing. It’s just the reflection of people who don’t know shit about the game.[/quote]
from ESPN.com’s Chad Millman:
While all the matchups of the Divisional Round of the 2011 NFL playoffs are intriguing, from a gambling perspective one stands out: the New Orleans Saints visiting the San Francisco 49ers.
Though we touched on it in this space last week, the Saints and 49ers finished No. 1 and No. 2 respectively in the NFL Sweat Barometer this year (data provided by Sal Selvaggio from MadduxSports.com).
The Saints have struggled on the road this season (4-4 ATS, SB of minus-2.13), with losses to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St. Louis Rams, while the Niners have been absolutely dominant at home (7-0-1 ATS, SB of 11.06). The line opened at Saints minus-3.5 and has stayed there, with the total being bumped up from 47 to 47.5. And the public, as expected, is backing the Saints at a 71 percent clip.
The big question is whether San Francisco’s defense can slow down Drew Brees and New Orleans’ offense. The 49ers defense is ranked No. 3 in the NFL by Football Outsiders with a DVOA of minus-10.3 percent and first in the NFL against the run; it only ranks eighth against the pass.
However, Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports thinks the numbers for San Francisco’s pass defense are a bit misleading.
“The Niners played to a 13-3 record and often had teams put away,” Kulesa says. “They allowed 104 of their 229 points in the fourth quarter! There were a lot of passing yards there, and despite that they allowed just 14.3 ppg.”
One major issue for the 49ers, though, is that according to FO, they rank just 20th in the NFL at defending running backs catching passes out of the backfield, and Darren Sproles is one of the NFL’s best at doing just that.
Although lower-seeded wild-card winners like the Saints, who won and covered at home are only 20-29-1 ATS against higher-seeded opponents per vegasinsider.com, Kulesa sees value with the total – not the line.
“After last week’s game versus Detroit, in which the game sailed way over the 59-point total, this looks like about an easy as an over play, right? Not so fast,” he says. “The big offensive numbers in the Saints’ current 9-0 run, and 9-0 ATS run, have come against eight teams that have defenses ranked 20th or worse. The Saints are averaging 41.6 ppg at home but just 27.3 ppg on the road, a full two-touchdown difference. This total looks enticingly low because of the Saints’ offensive prowess in recent games, but now you know the rest of the story. Play the under.”[/quote]
I heard on ESPN that the line opened at Saints minus one and that it had gotten all the way to Saints minus four. But that was from Skip Bayless, who has absolutely no clue about anything, so it’s my fault for citing something he said during my discourse on gamblers.
But none of that means anything. I fully agree with the assessment of the Niners’ secondary. They are still the weak link, but perhaps the better way to put it is that they are the least strong link, because to call them weak is inaccurate. Fuck, they’ve got two Pro Bowlers in the secondary, and while I have no clue where they rank in terms of interceptions, I’d bet they’re in the top ten in the NFL in that category.
People forget too that Vic Fangio has always been known as a big blitzer. When he was at Stanford they blitzed all the time. But with the Niners, they’ve played a LOT of coverage, mostly man-under and a two deep zone. Why? Because Fangio knows that they have the sort of front seven that can get to the QB AND stop the run without having to blitz a lot and their secondary is talented enough to cover most receivers without the extra help a lot of blitzing would provide.
That being said, I fully expect to see a lot of blitzing, which means doing something that there isn’t a lot of film on. Brees, like EVERY QB in the NFL, is practically unstoppable with a lot of time to look off DBs and go through his progressions. But when pressured, he only completes about 50% of his passes, which is still best in the league, but he’s a totally different QB. I don’t even think he’ll finish the game, personally.
