MLB 2012

Off Topic
521

Is that what you wanted to PM me about?

I’m going leave the numbers stuff out since that’s already available to you.

I’m skeptical about his stamina. Last year they converted him into a starter when they needed pitching help and he ran out of gas. They’ve done the same thing again this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again. However he did say this year he prepared himself to pitch as a starter, go deeper into games. Take that for whatever it’s worth.

I’d have to look it up to be certain, but from memory most of the games he’s started he ends up pitching his way in and out of trouble. He’s gotten lucky a lot of his starts. He’s walked a ton and I highly doubt he’ll be able to sustain what he’s done so far.

Furthermore, his release point is inconsistent.

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/453646/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2012&to=7%2F17%2F2012

Notice the point on his release point graph aren’t very tightly packed are slightly scattered? Third graph from the top.

You can look at Verlander’s to obviously see what a consistent release point looks like

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/434378/

522

Fuck it. I picked up Villanueva. I forgot, I also picked up Clayton Richard off the waiver wire when Brandon Beachy went down, so I dropped him for Villanueva.

523

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Is that what you wanted to PM me about?

I’m going leave the numbers stuff out since that’s already available to you.

I’m skeptical about his stamina. Last year they converted him into a starter when they needed pitching help and he ran out of gas. They’ve done the same thing again this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again. However he did say this year he prepared himself to pitch as a starter, go deeper into games. Take that for whatever it’s worth.

I’d have to look it up to be certain, but from memory most of the games he’s started he ends up pitching his way in and out of trouble. He’s gotten lucky a lot of his starts. He’s walked a ton and I highly doubt he’ll be able to sustain what he’s done so far.

Furthermore, his release point is inconsistent.

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/453646/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2012&to=7%2F17%2F2012

Notice the point on his release point graph aren’t very tightly packed are slightly scattered? Third graph from the top.

You can look at Verlander’s to obviously see what a consistent release point looks like

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/434378/
[/quote]

No, I wanted to PM you about something totally different. It was a long PM, in classic style, and I don’t want to repeat it here in the public forum. It was simply an opportunity that I thought you might enjoy, but it might possibly require you using your real name while realizing this opportunity and I don’t want to let everyone on this site know where to go to see your real identity if you aren’t down with that. I’m not; you never know with the fucking Internet these days. Anyways, whenever I figure why the fuck I can’t send PMs to other people on here even though I can receive them I’ll re-PM you with all the relevant information.

524

Brett Lawrie almost killed himself today:

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_07_18_tormlb_nyamlb_1&highlight_content_id=23130367&c_id=tor

luckily just a calf contusion

525

watch the slow-mo at 1:55

526

Bochy pinch hit Belt for Justin Christian today.

SMH

527

I’m obviously a Hamilton fan, but each day that goes by i’m agreeing more and more with everyone that is saying Trout is the favorite for the AL MVP. Guy is tearing it up. Still can’t rule out Cabrera though who is having another stellar year yet no one MVP talk for him for some reason. I still think he should have won it last year.

528

[quote]Maiden3.16 wrote:
I’m obviously a Hamilton fan, but each day that goes by i’m agreeing more and more with everyone that is saying Trout is the favorite for the AL MVP. Guy is tearing it up. Still can’t rule out Cabrera though who is having another stellar year yet no one MVP talk for him for some reason. I still think he should have won it last year. [/quote]

Miguel Cabrera has been absolutely terrible defensively at 3B though. Defense has been what has sunk Detroit to this point

529

Jays and Astros pulled off a 10 player deal. Nothing of interest moved, J.A. Happ was the “big name” in the deal. Hopefully he isn’t terrible.

Coincidentally, when the Jays-Phillies were working on the Halladay trade, JA Happ was one of the pieces the Phillies refused to give up in '09.

530

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Bochy pinch hit Belt for Justin Christian today.

SMH[/quote]

So what?

And what does SMH mean?

531

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Bochy pinch hit Belt for Justin Christian today.

SMH[/quote]

Justin Christian can fucking mash, anyways. He took me deep to centerfield when we were playing against each in a summer league when we were 17.

532

Justin Christian has no future and Belt has a superstar type ceiling.

He’s arguably the 4th best hitter on the team at this point too (leads in OBP). It’s like Bochy is looking for every reason imaginable to screw up his development. Prospects need stability and reps to reach potential.

If you want the Giants to be good for years to come your best bet is to give this guy a fuck ton of rope and hope he develops because their farm system is barren. Sanchez, huff, christian, are marginal improvements at best.

533

SMH = Shaking My Head

534

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Justin Christian has no future and Belt has a superstar type ceiling.

He’s arguably the 4th best hitter on the team at this point too (leads in OBP). It’s like Bochy is looking for every reason imaginable to screw up his development. Prospects need stability and reps to reach potential.

If you want the Giants to be good for years to come your best bet is to give this guy a fuck ton of rope and hope he develops because their farm system is barren. Sanchez, huff, christian, are marginal improvements at best.

[/quote]

You see, that’s where the fact that the Blue Jays have been dogshit for years on end now has tainted your thinking. Bochy and the Giants don’t really give much of a fuck about Belt’s progression over the next couple years. They don’t need to and they aren’t really supposed to a whole lot.

The Giants do not exist to provide an outlet for Belt to sharpen his skills as a hitter. They exist to win ballgames, period. If there is a guy who provides even an inkling of a better chance to win a game TODAY than another guy, then the first guy should be used. If Christian represents a statistical or real improvement over Belt in a given situation, it may be be to Belt’s benefit to use him there, but it is to the detriment of the rest of the team.

The Giants are a first place team with another legitimate shot at winning the World Series as of now. They are concerned about this season and this season only for right now. If Belt isn’t getting it done, it would be nice if the Giants were so fucking good offensively and defensively everywhere else that they could let him ride out the slump. But they aren’t that good. They’re pitching rich, so they can afford to keep running a guy like Lincecum out there, who has earned every right to pitch through struggles, something Belt has not done.

And that’s the key. When all is said and done, Belt has never really sustained any type of success for more than a week or so, literally. He has not even come close to earning the right to stay in the lineup through struggles. Part of managing a team involves getting guys who produce into the lineup as often as possible. When a guy like Christian gets called up and is swinging the bat well and Belt is struggling, you better believe Bochy is going to try to get Christian in there for Belt if the opportunity arises.

I guess what I could have just said is that the Giants are in the business of winning baseball games, not developing talent. They’d like to do both, but they aren’t going to develop talent at the expense of ballgames in the here and now. Bad teams are constantly developing talent, good teams are constantly trying to win the next game.

535

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Justin Christian has no future and Belt has a superstar type ceiling.

He’s arguably the 4th best hitter on the team at this point too (leads in OBP). It’s like Bochy is looking for every reason imaginable to screw up his development. Prospects need stability and reps to reach potential.

If you want the Giants to be good for years to come your best bet is to give this guy a fuck ton of rope and hope he develops because their farm system is barren. Sanchez, huff, christian, are marginal improvements at best.

[/quote]

Also, since when does Belt have a superstar-type ceiling? He was a 4th round pick! What the fuck has he ever done to warrant such a high ceiling? You know where that ceiling came from? The lunatic fringe portion of the Giants fanbase. They all saw Posey tear through the minors, and then Belt does the same thing and a lot of fans thought this guy was going to be just as good. I was even over-zealous in my initial hopes for Belt.

But after having watched most of his major league at-bats, I haven’t seen much at all to indicate that his ceiling is any much higher than a James Loney-type player, perhaps Carlos Pena at best.

536

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Jays and Astros pulled off a 10 player deal. Nothing of interest moved, J.A. Happ was the “big name” in the deal. Hopefully he isn’t terrible.

Coincidentally, when the Jays-Phillies were working on the Halladay trade, JA Happ was one of the pieces the Phillies refused to give up in '09.[/quote]

The best player the Jays got in that trade was Lyon, as far as this season goes anyways. I think Carpenter may prove to be serviceable in the long run since he’s still under contract for 5 years.

537

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Justin Christian has no future and Belt has a superstar type ceiling.

He’s arguably the 4th best hitter on the team at this point too (leads in OBP). It’s like Bochy is looking for every reason imaginable to screw up his development. Prospects need stability and reps to reach potential.

If you want the Giants to be good for years to come your best bet is to give this guy a fuck ton of rope and hope he develops because their farm system is barren. Sanchez, huff, christian, are marginal improvements at best.

[/quote]

You see, that’s where the fact that the Blue Jays have been dogshit for years on end now has tainted your thinking. Bochy and the Giants don’t really give much of a fuck about Belt’s progression over the next couple years. They don’t need to and they aren’t really supposed to a whole lot.

The Giants do not exist to provide an outlet for Belt to sharpen his skills as a hitter. They exist to win ballgames, period. If there is a guy who provides even an inkling of a better chance to win a game TODAY than another guy, then the first guy should be used. If Christian represents a statistical or real improvement over Belt in a given situation, it may be be to Belt’s benefit to use him there, but it is to the detriment of the rest of the team.

The Giants are a first place team with another legitimate shot at winning the World Series as of now. They are concerned about this season and this season only for right now. If Belt isn’t getting it done, it would be nice if the Giants were so fucking good offensively and defensively everywhere else that they could let him ride out the slump. But they aren’t that good. They’re pitching rich, so they can afford to keep running a guy like Lincecum out there, who has earned every right to pitch through struggles, something Belt has not done.

And that’s the key. When all is said and done, Belt has never really sustained any type of success for more than a week or so, literally. He has not even come close to earning the right to stay in the lineup through struggles. Part of managing a team involves getting guys who produce into the lineup as often as possible. When a guy like Christian gets called up and is swinging the bat well and Belt is struggling, you better believe Bochy is going to try to get Christian in there for Belt if the opportunity arises.

I guess what I could have just said is that the Giants are in the business of winning baseball games, not developing talent. They’d like to do both, but they aren’t going to develop talent at the expense of ballgames in the here and now. Bad teams are constantly developing talent, good teams are constantly trying to win the next game.[/quote]

Your team is offense poor and a struggling Belt is still better than half the lineup. What I’m trying to tell you here is that even in the short term Belt is a superior option to any of the aforementioned players. If there was some decent veteran you could throw out there I’d understand, but you don’t. Every other option is terrible.

How exactly do you justify batting Justin Christian over Belt? What exactly has he done to deserve to take away playing time from Belt? Justin Christian has done fuck all in the Majors.

Also How do you define hot bat? 2 good hitting games in a row? What?

538

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

Also, since when does Belt have a superstar-type ceiling?[/quote]

Since early 2011.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

He was a 4th round pick! What the fuck has he ever done to warrant such a high ceiling? [/quote]

He completely revamped his swing in summer 2010 and became a completely different hitter. Ceiling changed. I believe he was labelled the biggest breakout prospect of 2011.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

You know where that ceiling came from? The lunatic fringe portion of the Giants fanbase. They all saw Posey tear through the minors, and then Belt does the same thing and a lot of fans thought this guy was going to be just as good. I was even over-zealous in my initial hopes for Belt. [/quote]

Major League scouts rave about this guy.

Baseball Prospectus ranked him #23 overall in 2011

"Year in Review: An unheralded pick at the time, Belt was the biggest breakout in the entire minor leagues in 2010, with scouts being universal in their belief that it was the real deal.
The Good: Belt has plus-plus pure hitting ability, showing no real weaknesses against lefties or righties, any pitch type, or thrown in any location. His hands are tremendous, and he’s equally adept at going with pitches or turning on them with plenty of bat speed. The bat plays even better due to outstanding plate discipline and pitch recognition. He’s a very good defensive first baseman, and runs well enough to play in the outfield, where he held is own in some late-season looks.

The Bad: Belt doesn’t have traditional power for a first baseman, and scouting projections for him vary from 15 to 25 home runs annually. He had some struggles in Triple-A against a steady diet of breaking balls, and might still need to make some adjustments at the highest level."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12935

Keith Law (a former ML scout) ranked him #17 and wrote:

[quote]Keith law wrote:

He’s an average runner and an above-average glove at first, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him handle left field well now that he’s semi-blocked by Aubrey Huff. He’s a potential impact callup for the Giants this year and a middle-of-the-order bat in the near future.
[/quote]

I’m not so sure why you’ve decided at >500PA he is a 4A player. Stick with it and it could pay off. If it doesn’t you’ll still have better production than the corpses Bochy insists on throwing out there.

539

Listen Raj, first of all, Belt is about the same threat against a lefty as Christian is, especially a good lefty like, uh…was it O’Flaherty he was facing? I think, I’m not sure.

Anyways, the way Bochy looks at it is this: Belt is a guy who COULD be a big-time contributor for the Giants but who has NOT been at all his entire time in the big leagues. Say what you want about how the Giants have handled the guy, the fact remains that he’s simply not the same hitter at all at the major league level that he is at the minor league level. My point remains that Belt hasn’t earned the right to be an automatic start or whatever regardless of what the numbers are regarding a lefty vs lefty matchup. I know that Belt actually hits lefties better than righties, which means he hits about .240 or .250 against them and .220 or so against righties. Those are ballpark figures but I suspect that if you look them up I’m within a few points one way or the other.

So I don’t blame Bochy for going strictly with the matchup advantage there. After all, we’re talking about one fucking at-bat in a 162-game season. This is hardly that much of an issue in the long haul. The fact is that Belt is the weakest link in the Giants lineup right now. He is not the player with the least potential by far, but he is the least productive of all the players getting regular starts. Even Brandon Crawford, who has actually been playing stellar defense since a shaky first month, has a couple big home runs recently. And yet, he’s been given the starting nod at first on a regular basis as well. So it’s not like he isn’t getting plenty of chances at first. Plus, Hector Sanchez just went on the DL, which means that Posey will probably play less at first base and Belt will get even more starts.

Now, as far as Belt’s potential goes, everything you’ve said means nothing. He made an adjustment to his swing in 2010 or 2011 or whatever? So fucking what? His paltry batting avg clearly suggests that he needs to make another adjustment to it NOW, in 2012. Whatever he did a couple years ago hasn’t worked at the major league level. He’s had the same problem and failed to make the same adjustment over the course of two different seasons: he isn’t quick on the inner half and he can be beat with fastballs there. This leaves him especially susceptible to offspeed pitches away because he has to cheat a little on the inner half. And guess what separates pitchers more than almost anything else between the Triple A and major league level? You guessed it. Command of the inner half with the fastball.

And as far as scouts go, not all of what they say really matters that much either. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that I’ve seen more of Belt’s at-bats at the major league level than most scouts have. For every prospect that most of the scouts are right about there’s another one that they all miss.

Look, I agree that Belt should get the lion’s share of at-bats at first, which he’s getting. But given that he isn’t producing and basically has never produced at the major league level, I don’t think you can fault Bochy for removing him in favor of a right-handed batter against a pretty good lefty late in a close game. The Giants can’t afford to ride out Belt’s progression that much. He’s really only getting as much playing time as he is because they don’t have anyone else to play first and he’s still an above-average fielder, which never hurts, especially at first base.

So stop with all the bullshit already. It’s not like Belt isn’t getting a pretty fair shake considering he’s hitting .206 over the last month, .115 the last two weeks and .125 over the last week. Believe it or not, that’s been pretty typical of Belt since he’s been with the big club.

540

And one other thing, Raj. At best, Belt is equal to Crawford and Theriot when all three struggle, not half the team. And that doesn’t negate from the fact that Belt has also shown a propensity to struggle much more often than either Crawford or Theriot.