Yes
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Yes[/quote]
So, do the Blue Jays have the prospects to pull off a trade for someone like Cole Hamels? Obviously they need starting pitching. Do you think they’ll go after a guy like Hamels or someone like Wandy Rodriguez instead? Or do you think they might just say fuck it since they’re still in last place even though they’re a couple games over .500?
Personally, I would say fuck this season and not dump a bunch of prospects for a guy like Hamels. He would definitely make a big impact for the Jays this year, but unless a move that big would make them the clear front-runner in their division I don’t think losing a lot of prospects would be worth it. Rodriguez would be a good fit for the right price, but I think there will probably be several teams willing to pony up some pretty decent prospects for him as well. Do the Blue Jays have a lot of good pitching prospects right now? I know their best overall prospect is Arnaud, but he’s out now and I doubt he’ll make it to the bigs this year. Before he was injured I heard he was going to be called up soon and I assumed that Arencibia would be part of a deal involving a major player. Now, it looks like the Jays would have to add in another prospect and keep Arencibia if they wanted to try and contend.
What do you think, Raj? They look pretty decent this year, but do you think they could make the moves to get into Serious Contention for the Pennant This Year without mortgaging their future?
When I think of the situation they’re in, it reminds me of last year with the Giants. When Lincecum was really struggling I kept thinking how nice it would be if they had Zach Wheeler still dominating everyone in the minors as an insurance policy. But he was traded for Beltran, who they apparently didn’t even make an offer to this offseason. Wheeler is now one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and apparently features stuff very similar to Kevin Brown (94-97 with a LOT of late, downward sink and a really good curve with 1 to 7 movement and an above average change up). Now, the Giants are that much thinner in the minors (although their system even before that trade was thinner than all but a few teams since their top prospects from the last few drafts are all in the bigs now) and they don’t have any real bargaining chips in trade talks that would’t absolutely decimate their system were they to be traded.
That’s the thing that’s frustrating sometimes. I think GMs tend to put a little TOO much faith in their teams when they’re borderline contenders. I understand the mindset where if there is a chance to get to the postseason you have to take it, but I hate to see teams end up mortgaging their future when they think adding one more player will make a huge difference when it really won’t. I think the Blue Jays this year and the Giants last year are two perfect examples. Let’s be honest; the Jays are in a stacked division with four teams in front of them that either have as much talent or more (TB, NY and Bal.) or have more veteran presence and postseason experience (NY and Boston). Realistically, they still won’t be much better than maybe the third-best team in their division even if they get Hamels. The Giants last year were so bad on offense that it wouldn’t have made much of a difference if they had Beltran or not. He was injured during a crucial stretch for the Giants after not being effective for the first week or so he was with them, and by the time he was healthy again it was too late for his excellent play down the stretch to mean anything.
Sometimes I’d like to see GMs make a move, or NOT make one, that shows they understand that, hey we may be a decent team but the reality is that we aren’t going to have much of a chance even with some midseason improvements so fuck it, we’re standing pat this year even if it does look like we’re giving up to the fans.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
So, do the Blue Jays have the prospects to pull off a trade for someone like Cole Hamels? [/quote]
Without a doubt. Oddly enough, the prospects they’d want in return would likely be the same ones they gave up for Halladay, D’Arnaud and Gose (Jays turned Brett Wallace into Gose).
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Obviously they need starting pitching. Do you think they’ll go after a guy like Hamels or someone like Wandy Rodriguez instead? [/quote]
Trade for? Not a chance. In the offseason? Highly doubtful but more likely than a trade. The GM has stated that he will not give out contracts longer than 5 years. Of course I think he would break this rule for the right player.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Or do you think they might just say fuck it since they’re still in last place even though they’re a couple games over .500?[/quote]
I doubt they’ll finish .500 with the injuries their starting rotation has sustained. Organizational type guys are filling 3 spots in the starting rotation currently. It’s gotten to the point where I can barely watch the defensive side of the ball. On top of struggling, all these bad pitchers slow the game down so fucking much.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Personally, I would say fuck this season and not dump a bunch of prospects for a guy like Hamels. He would definitely make a big impact for the Jays this year, but unless a move that big would make them the clear front-runner in their division I don’t think losing a lot of prospects would be worth it. Rodriguez would be a good fit for the right price, but I think there will probably be several teams willing to pony up some pretty decent prospects for him as well. [/quote]
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Do the Blue Jays have a lot of good pitching prospects right now? [/quote]
They do but they’re well down the pipeline. The Jays farm system is highly regarded for it’s depth and elite level position players. The 3 Major League ready starters they do have in Drabek, Hutchison and Alvarez are all injured, though Alvarez is expected back shortly.
Drabek just had his 2nd TJ surgery and will not be back anytime soon. I was doing some research looking at players who’ve had two TJ surgeries in short succession and the only name I could come up with was Chris Capuano. Drabek who originally had a ceiling of top of the rotation stuff may end up being nothing more than a quality reliever.
Henderson Alvarez was expected to be a mid-rotation starter (mid-90’s fastball, good change up) has been disappointing as he can’t strike anyone out. He has had one of the lowest K/9 IP and swing and miss rates in the league. You can’t survive as a starter in this league when 91% of your pitches are put in play. The only saving grace is that he’s 22.
Position player wise the Jays have D’Arnaud, Gose, Snider and Marisnick. The first 3 should all be with the big club next year.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I know their best overall prospect is Arnaud, but he’s out now and I doubt he’ll make it to the bigs this year. Before he was injured I heard he was going to be called up soon and I assumed that Arencibia would be part of a deal involving a major player. Now, it looks like the Jays would have to add in another prospect and keep Arencibia if they wanted to try and contend.[/quote]
You are correct, D’Arnaud is their best prospect and probably top 5 overall.
JP Arencibia on the other hand isn’t very good. He’s average defensively, and below average offensively. Yes he’s got power in his bat, but he strikes out a fuck ton and can’t get on base. He’s always been a short term solution. I think what the GM has been planning all along was to build Arencibia’s value by playing him full time for a couple years, then trade him for whatever he can get. D’Arnaud has always been projected as the long term solution.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
What do you think, Raj? They look pretty decent this year, but do you think they could make the moves to get into Serious Contention for the Pennant This Year without mortgaging their future? [/quote]
No they aren’t close and both Hamels and Wandy wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs.
The plan since the current GM took over has been to build a perennial contender. That means stocking the farm system, developing a core and adding veterans once that core has developed (think Texas Rangers). The Rangers have only in the last couple of years really added big name veterans when you think about it.
The Jays are not wealthy enough to regularly add high paid veterans to fill holes like Boston and NYY, but they’re also not so poor that they have to use every trade chip they have just to contend for one season (e.g. 2011 Brewers).
So no, don’t expect the Jays to trade away their prospects.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
When I think of the situation they’re in, it reminds me of last year with the Giants. When Lincecum was really struggling I kept thinking how nice it would be if they had Zach Wheeler still dominating everyone in the minors as an insurance policy. But he was traded for Beltran, who they apparently didn’t even make an offer to this offseason. Wheeler is now one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and apparently features stuff very similar to Kevin Brown (94-97 with a LOT of late, downward sink and a really good curve with 1 to 7 movement and an above average change up). Now, the Giants are that much thinner in the minors (although their system even before that trade was thinner than all but a few teams since their top prospects from the last few drafts are all in the bigs now) and they don’t have any real bargaining chips in trade talks that would’t absolutely decimate their system were they to be traded. [/quote]
Is it really similar though?
Wouldn’t you say the Giants are in their peak years? It seems to me, this would be the right time for the Giant to mortgage the future in order to compete today. Yes the Zach Wheeler trade didn’t work out, but if now isn’t the right time to trade away high end prospects for ML ready talent, when is? On top of that, I get the impression Bochy is terrible at developing young talent. The way he’s managed Belt and the fact that he only gave Posey playing time when his hand was forced through the Molina trade speaks volumes.
Conversely the Jays aren’t in their peak years, maybe next year, but no later than 2014.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
That’s the thing that’s frustrating sometimes. I think GMs tend to put a little TOO much faith in their teams when they’re borderline contenders. I understand the mindset where if there is a chance to get to the postseason you have to take it, but I hate to see teams end up mortgaging their future when they think adding one more player will make a huge difference when it really won’t.[/quote]
Yep, just look at the Ubaldo Jimenez trade. I also think the Gio Gonzalez trade will eventually turn out to be won by the A’s down the road.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I think the Blue Jays this year and the Giants last year are two perfect examples. Let’s be honest; the Jays are in a stacked division with four teams in front of them that either have as much talent or more (TB, NY and Bal.) or have more veteran presence and postseason experience (NY and Boston). [/quote]
Baltimore does NOT have a more talented team than the Jays. I’m not going over their whole team, but mainly their starting rotation is performing way over their heads.
I’m sure you’ve seen Jason Hammel pitch a bunch while he was with the Rockies. Is a 3.29 ERA a real indication of his talent? Or will he eventually regress back to his career numbers? I can’t see this hold up, at most he will only continue to perform for the remainder of the season. I will be skeptical about the Orioles until mid-August. If you remember, the Pirates were still in 1st place this time last year.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Realistically, they still won’t be much better than maybe the third-best team in their division even if they get Hamels. The Giants last year were so bad on offense that it wouldn’t have made much of a difference if they had Beltran or not. He was injured during a crucial stretch for the Giants after not being effective for the first week or so he was with them, and by the time he was healthy again it was too late for his excellent play down the stretch to mean anything.
Sometimes I’d like to see GMs make a move, or NOT make one, that shows they understand that, hey we may be a decent team but the reality is that we aren’t going to have much of a chance even with some midseason improvements so fuck it, we’re standing pat this year even if it does look like we’re giving up to the fans. [/quote]
I agree.
My enjoyment for the rest of the season will come from watching the best hitter in Baseball since 2010 Jose Bautista, the progression of Rasmus, Lawrie and Morrow.
But no I have no delusions of contention.
Moments like this:
I watch for moments like this:
Well, any issues with the All-Star rosters? I’ll be the first to say that my man Pablo Sandoval is the most egregious example this year of the pitfalls of fan voting. He’s missed 5 weeks with a broken bone in his hand and although he’s hitting over .300, he hasn’t been a huge impact in the Giants lineup yet this year.
Other than that, I don’t really see anything too glaringly wrong with these rosters. I thought Bryan LaHair was a bit of a stretch since the Cubs got their mandatory one player with Castro.
The thing I’ve noticed this year is that there really seems to be a LOT of high-quality YOUNG talent on both rosters, especially the NL. Of their 33 players I think only 8 are over the age of 30 and it seems like the average age is about 26.
I don’t like the idea of each team having to have at least one representative. It was a good idea when the game was purely an exhibition, but now that home field advantage in the World Series rides on the game it would be better if that rule were eliminated. There are snubs every year and this would be the best and most expedient way to largely remove this possibility without getting rid of fan voting. I like the fact that the players vote on the bench players and the pitchers or whatever. It’s kind of like picking teams in a pickup game.
I DO think that the rule should stay in place only regarding the team hosting the game. Why shouldn’t the hosting city get to watch their best player in the game that they’re putting on? Other than that though, it should be the best 33 players no matter what. Personally, I’d like to see the rosters decreased by a couple players, maybe down to 29 or 30.
If they really want to make the game more interesting for fans, which seems to be a perpetual problem with pretty much any All-Star game in any major sport, they should require the starters who are voted in to play at least the first 5 innings and the starting pitcher should be required to throw a minimum of 3 innings, barring total ineffectiveness. If the game is for the fans, then why let the players who the fans voted in, the ones we ostensibly want to see the most of, leave the game after as little as one or two innings to be replaced by a string of players who may be as good or better, but for whatever reasons are not as popular with the fans, hence the fact that they weren’t voted in? It doesn’t make sense to let the fans vote and then turn around and allow the players voted for to have perhaps the smaller impact on the game since many of them may only play an inning or two at the outset and not be on the field in the later innings.
In fact, that brings me to another point. Why not allow substitutions of any kind? If a manager yanked David Ortiz out of the lineup in favor of Billy Butler but then it’s late in the game and Butler is due up against Craig Kimbrel with the tying run on second base and no lefties left on the bench, why shouldn’t he be allowed to just put Ortiz back in as a pinch-hitter for Butler? If both teams can do it there’s no advantage one way or the other and it may very well be an extremely good way to create some memorable matchups in the game in the later innings. After all, that’s what we want to see, right? The big-time relievers against the big-time power-hitters late in the game, the flame-throwers vs the guys who can turn around any fastball on the planet.
Paul Konerko should be starting over Prince Fielder.
Ryan Braun should be starting over Melky Cabrera. I’m not really a fan of having these journeymen type players having career years starting in the all star game. Typically players moving from the AL to NL generally improve in performance as well.
I also hope R.A. Dickey doesn’t start for the NL either.
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Paul Konerko should be starting over Prince Fielder.
Ryan Braun should be starting over Melky Cabrera. I’m not really a fan of having these journeymen type players having career years starting in the all star game. Typically players moving from the AL to NL generally improve in performance as well.
I also hope R.A. Dickey doesn’t start for the NL either.
[/quote]
I totally agree with Konerko over Fielder. Knoerko might be the most under appreciated hitter in the AL over the last few years.
Braun SHOULD go in over Cabrera, but it’s a moot point since Kemp is out. So the actual starting OF for the NL will be Cabrera, Braun and Beltran, with Cabrera oct likely manning center, Braun in left and Beltran in left.
What do you think the lineups should be? Here is what I would put out if I was the manager of each team and given what the starters are now. Batting order with position plus assuming that Braun takes over for Kemp and Giancarlo Stanton as the DH (only because he’s the worst of the best-hitting reserves on defense).
NL
Cabrera CF
Beltran RF
Braun LF
Votto 1B
Stanton DH
Sandoval 3B
Posey C
Furcal SS
Uggla 2B
SP: Cain, followed by Dickey (Dickey deserves the starting nod over Cain, but IU think it would fuck with the hitters more if Cain started featuring a 90-94mph fastball, followed by Dickey’s knuckler at 80mph at best and then someone like Gio Gonzales or Hamels from the left side and then Strasburg from the right side.
That way, the AL lineup has a better chance of having more hitters in it who see a good fastball their first at-bat, a MUCH slower pitcher their second at-bat and then an even harder-throwing pitcher than the first one. From a purely strategical sense, the best option is Cain followed by Dickey.
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
AL
Jeter SS
Cano 2B
Hamilton CF
Bautista RF
Fielder 1B
Granderson LF
Beltre 3B
Ortiz DH
Napoli C
SP: Verlander
Closer: Joe Nathan
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
What do you think the lineups should be?
[/quote]
Assuming I can start reserves, here are the changes I’d make:
NL
Cabrera DH
Braun LF
Votto 1B
Beltran RF
Stanton CF
Sandoval 3B
Uggla 2B
Furcal SS
Molina C
SP: Strasburg
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
-
Your best hitter should always hit 3rd and that’s Votto.
-
Braun is a better baserunner than Beltran so I moved him up in the lineup.
-
Glancing at their advanced fielding stats, Stanton is a better fielder than Melky, so I made Melky the DH. I’m on the fence about this move as I have no idea how well Stanton can play CF. No one really stands out though.
-
Probably what you’re wondering about the most, I would bench Posey and start Molina. Yadier is an amazing catcher. He controls the running game extremely well, calls a good game, and is solid defensively. Posey is obviously the superior hitter, but with the amount of offense in this lineup, I’d take the plus defending catcher. Yadier is heads and tails better than any other catcher defensively in the league. As the old saying goes, the game is played up the middle.
-
I’d start with Strasburg. Strasburg has been the best pitcher in baseball up to this point, it’s only close because he’s on an innings limit. I’d go Strasburg 1, Cain 2, Dickey 3 ( throw out Dickey whenever the lineup turns over so the top of the order is thrown off balance).
AL
Jeter SS
Granderson LF
Hamilton CF
Bautista RF
Cano 2B
Konerko 1B
Ortiz DH
Beltre 3B
Wieters C
SP: Verlander
Closer: Joe Nathan
-
I’d start Wieters over Napoli for the same reason I’d start Molina over Posey
-
I swapped Granderson and Cano because Granderson is fast and Cano isn’t.
Actually I’d replace Stanton with McCutchen in CF
I’d also put in Elvis Andurus for Jeter.
Defensively Jeter has been atrocious.
Huston Street probably didn’t deserve to go since he was injured for a bit and has only pitched 20 innings this year.
First of all, Raj, I don’t know what kind of stats you’re looking at but I’ve seen both Stanton and Cabrera play defense in person twice and on television who knows how many times. And I can tell you right now that Stanton is not as good on defense as Cabrera is. And Stanton’s probably never played an inning in centerfield in his entire professional career.
As far as Posey goes, I’d give the nod to Molina defensively, but he’s not that much better than Posey. Certainly not enough to warrant benching him.
I would stick with Braun in front of Votto. Those are easily the best two power hitters in the lineup and you wouldn’t want them batting anywhere other than 3rd and 4th. Votto is the best hitter in baseball right now but I would bat him behind Braun because of his propensity to hit a lot of doubles and Braun’s far superior speed. The more players with speed batting in front of Votto the better.
At this point Verlander would have faced two lefties already and I’ve never been a big fan of batting several players in a row from the same side of the plate if you don’t have to. It makes it a little easier for a pitcher to get into a groove early in the game if he can pound one side of the plate for several batters in a row. By going with Cabrera and Beltran there are two switch hitters with speed at the top of the order from the left side (Beltran is a smarter but slower baserunner than Braun is, although he isn’t slow by any means), then a righty in Braun and then a lefty again in Votto.
They’re both such good hitters I don’t think one is heads and shoulders above the other and realistically, if the NL loses it won’t be because Votto and Braun batted in the wrong spots in the order.
Personally, from a purely strategic standpoint, I would start Gio Gonzalez. The AL roster looks to be extremely left-handed and when Gonzalez throws strikes he’s as tough to hit as anyone in the majors. I wouldn’t start Strasburg. He isn’t better than Matt Cain for one thing, and he isn’t having as good a season as R.A. Dickey. A huge part of being a really good starting pitcher is pitching deep into ballgames and Strasburg simply doesn’t do it.
I understand that part of it is the innings-limit thing, but that doesn’t negate the fact that when all is said and done he does not consistently pitch into the 7th or 8th inning this year. I’m also skeptical of how many innings Washington would let Strasburg throw anyways. What’s the point of starting him if he’s only allowed to throw the first inning? I’d rather see him close the game out.
I’m shocked by how many Giants fans voted. Apparently Posey received the most votes for an NL player in the history of fan voting, Cabrera went from 4th in the voting to 1st amongst outfielders, Sandoval was voted in despite missing more than a month, Brandon Crawford received the 2nd-most votes at SS, Brandon Belt was the 2nd-place finisher at 1st base and Freddy fucking Sanchez even got something like 2 million votes at 2nd base. Shit, I think Aubrey Huff received more than a million votes.
For clarity sake:
NL
Cabrera DH
Braun LF
Votto 1B
Beltran RF
McCutchen CF
Sandoval 3B
Uggla 2B
Furcal SS
Molina C
SP: Strasburg
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
AL
Andurus SS
Granderson LF
Hamilton CF
Bautista RF
Cano 2B
Konerko 1B
Ortiz DH
Beltre 3B
Wieters C
SP: Verlander
Closer: Joe Natha
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
First of all, Raj, I don’t know what kind of stats you’re looking at but I’ve seen both Stanton and Cabrera play defense in person twice and on television who knows how many times. And I can tell you right now that Stanton is not as good on defense as Cabrera is. And Stanton’s probably never played an inning in centerfield in his entire professional career.
As far as Posey goes, I’d give the nod to Molina defensively, but he’s not that much better than Posey. Certainly not enough to warrant benching him.[/quote]
Based on Defensive runs saved above average (Rdrs) and caught stealing %
Yadier Molina Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com (rdrs)
Buster Posey Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com (rdrs)
Rdrs:
Molina 3
Posey -2
CS %
Molina 39%
Posey 25%
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I would stick with Braun in front of Votto. Those are easily the best two power hitters in the lineup and you wouldn’t want them batting anywhere other than 3rd and 4th. Votto is the best hitter in baseball right now but I would bat him behind Braun because of his propensity to hit a lot of doubles and Braun’s far superior speed. The more players with speed batting in front of Votto the better. [/quote]
Okay. I guess there’s not a huge difference between Votto and Braun.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Personally, from a purely strategic standpoint, I would start Gio Gonzalez. The AL roster looks to be extremely left-handed and when Gonzalez throws strikes he’s as tough to hit as anyone in the majors. I wouldn’t start Strasburg. He isn’t better than Matt Cain for one thing, and he isn’t having as good a season as R.A. Dickey. A huge part of being a really good starting pitcher is pitching deep into ballgames and Strasburg simply doesn’t do it. [/quote]
Based on this season alone, Strasburg has been better than Cain if you take into account the innings limit. The only reason Strasburg hasn’t gone deep is because he gets pulled out earlier than he should.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I understand that part of it is the innings-limit thing, but that doesn’t negate the fact that when all is said and done he does not consistently pitch into the 7th or 8th inning this year. I’m also skeptical of how many innings Washington would let Strasburg throw anyways. What’s the point of starting him if he’s only allowed to throw the first inning? I’d rather see him close the game out.
[/quote]
I’d rather have my best pitcher start the game. I guess it’s just preference. It would make sense to throw out strasburg in the 8th-9th since he leads the leagues in k/9
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I’m shocked by how many Giants fans voted. Apparently Posey received the most votes for an NL player in the history of fan voting, Cabrera went from 4th in the voting to 1st amongst outfielders, Sandoval was voted in despite missing more than a month, Brandon Crawford received the 2nd-most votes at SS, Brandon Belt was the 2nd-place finisher at 1st base and Freddy fucking Sanchez even got something like 2 million votes at 2nd base. Shit, I think Aubrey Huff received more than a million votes. [/quote]
It’s a popularity contest nothing more.
Also, expect Melky Cabrera to decline in the second half.
He’s got a BABIP of .390, highly unsustainable.