I agree that Italy’s debt is mainly in-house. The economy has mainly been stagnant/flatlining for the last decade or so. It’s impossible for young people to get a job. Mafia is spreading up to the north, where it’s never been. Immigration, encouraged by the mafia, has caused huge spates of crime increase - Italy when I first went to see my family in the mid-90s I remember being incredibly homogenous - now all the farm workers are Arab. It’s a huge sea change. And of course Berlusconi is the most corrupt of them all.
I think that Italy will not require a bailout. But the way some financial institutions are salivating, they could well push the country to needing one.
[quote]Erasmus wrote:
Thanks for the advice.
I haven’t considered Francs before, I was looking around to buy gold or silver.
But it sounds like a less ‘extreme’ option.[/quote]
With the Swiss Franc though, its all kind of tricky.
It is pretty high right now and there is at least the possibilty that it may fall again.
On the other hand, if the markets become convinced that the ECB is going the inflation route it might go through the roof.
So, it depends on how much you have and how much a potential (and maybe only temporary) drop against the EUR bothers you.
Sadly I don’t think anything will save us. When I lived in Germany I met people who had survived Weimar (as a souvenir I still have a billion RM note!). They said when they got their wages (the ones who still had a job) at the end of the week they spent it all as the next day they were practically worthless.
In the end they had to take several suitcases to carry their wage packets (in those days most wages were in cash). Banks went bust and entire savings were lost. Of course with the wonders of hindsight we know how it all turned out! Unfortunately history has this ability to repeat itself.
[quote]oldtimer3 wrote:
Sadly I don’t think anything will save us. When I lived in Germany I met people who had survived Weimar (as a souvenir I still have a billion RM note!). They said when they got their wages (the ones who still had a job) at the end of the week they spent it all as the next day they were practically worthless.
In the end they had to take several suitcases to carry their wage packets (in those days most wages were in cash). Banks went bust and entire savings were lost. Of course with the wonders of hindsight we know how it all turned out! Unfortunately history has this ability to repeat itself. [/quote]
I dont think that it will get this bad in the EU.
Maybe they will just do what Volcker did in the US, meaning a decade of relatively high inflation or so.
What worries me in the US that people might lose trust in the currency and that nobody wants those stinking treasury bills anymore (cant blame them).
If the Chinese dont want to play anymore and there is only one bank run in the US tghis whole house of cards might be coming down and neither Obama nor Bernanke have the moral authority to stop a panic.
France and Germany (basically the guys who run the EU, we Brits don’t really like it) have hammered out a common deal on the position of Greek debt. Whether this is a sticking plaster onthe wound (as I think) or a deal capable of stopping the crisis is yet to be seen. Contagion is very likely to spread to Portugal and Ireland, if not Spain and Italy. Confidence is pretty shaky. Lot of people seeing a double dip recession. The only reason that Germany is going ahead with this is because the EU is rigged so they get the maximum economic benefit out of it.
Every time politicians have to step up and address the issues, they vacillate and vacillate. In other news bears like arboreal defecating locations I suppose.
EDIT: USA, do not let your structural deficit get like this. Debt, not so important. Structural deficit is. Don’t address this and you’ll be doing the same as us in 5 years
(1) China is propping up Euro sovereign debt. They will both be fucked.
(2) Wall Street Journal: The USA has resumed its collapse. "Companies are laying off employees at a level not seen in nearly a year, hobbling the job market and intensifying fears about the pace of the economic recovery.
Cisco Systems Inc., Lockheed Martin Corp. and troubled bookstore chain Borders Group Inc. are among those that have recently announced hefty cuts, while recent government numbers underscore how companies have shifted toward cutting jobs.
The increase in layoffs is a key reason why the U.S. recorded an average of only 21,500 new jobs over the past two months, far below the level needed to bring down unemployment, which now stands at 9.2%."
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
(1) China is propping up Euro sovereign debt. They will both be fucked.
When our debt is downgraded (along with Europe), watch out below.
[/quote]
Part 1 - False
Part 2 - There is no ONE Euro debt … be more specific.
Perhaps USA watch out below if you don’t cut out the partisan BS.
[/quote]
Some reports that agreement won’t be reached this weekend. It’s estimated if that happens then on Aug. 15 the treasuries balance will be -$15B. So we would default.
[quote]Bambi wrote:
OK mayday mayday, Eurozone is going down
Italian banks are reaching the danger zone.
The FTSE Dax and Dow Jones have plummeted (so has the price of oil, so every cloud etc)
It looks like Italy is about to go under and it is ‘to big to fail’
This is going to fun.[/quote]
Yes and once the ECB buy italy and spanish bonds its sorted again…
Notice Ireland is now below 10% - couple months ago people were saying Ireland is fucked.
Said it 100 times the dollar will blow up long before the Euro.
Still have lots of ace cards to play yet - Fed is out of them.[/quote]
Didn’t the ECB saying they would buy Spanish and Italian bonds on thursday actually make the markets worse?
I wish I shared your optimism I really did. If Italy had a leader who had an ounce of virtue I would be more optimistic but words cannot describe how awful Berlusconi is. The only people who are worse are the Italian opposition!
Didn’t the ECB saying they would buy Spanish and Italian bonds on thursday actually make the markets worse?
I wish I shared your optimism I really did. If Italy had a leader who had an ounce of virtue I would be more optimistic but words cannot describe how awful Berlusconi is. The only people who are worse are the Italian opposition![/quote]
No the fact they DIDN’T say is what caused such nervousness.
As the Asian markets stated if you won’t buy them why should we …
He may be bad but the parties work together which gets stuff done.
I have no doubt the Euro have started EVERY SINGLE printing press started - Swiss are doing it to.
