Kerry's Position on Iraq

Or did any of his 49 advisors, esp from the Clinton Admimistaration ever ;ppl back on this article?

THE VISIBLE HAND
The Iraqi Connection
President Bush must win the war his father started.
OpinionJournal
Wall Street Journal Online
BY RICHARD MINITER
Monday, September 24, 2001 12:01 a.m. EDT

In President Bush’s soaring, Reaganesque speech Thursday night, two words were missing: Saddam Hussein.

Is America’s Gulf War foe behind the attacks? Secretary of State Colin Powell and other Bush administration officials say there is “no evidence” of that. Yet veteran State Department watchers say that “evidence” is a kind of Foggy Bottom shorthand for absolute proof–the kind that lawyers would need to convict the Iraqi dictator in court.

Still, there is a strong circumstantial case that Iraq has backed Osama bin Laden and has been waging a terrorist war of assassination plots and bombings that had already killed hundreds of Americans before Sept. 11–from the 1993 World Trade Center bombing to the attack on the USS Cole last year.

Israeli intelligence services reportedly met with CIA and FBI officials in August and warned of an imminent large-scale attack on the U.S. There “were strong grounds for suspecting Iraqi involvement,” a senior Israeli official later told London’s Daily Telegraph.

Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda reportedly had representatives based in Baghdad. In 1997 he also set up training camps in Iraq, according to Canada’s National Post. Iraq has also reportedly delivered small arms and money to bin Laden’s organization over the past few years. Iraqi intelligence agents have met repeatedly with bin Laden or his operatives in Sudan, Turkey, Afghanistan and an undisclosed site in Europe (evidently Prague). Iraqi opposition leaders have also said that there is a long history of contact between Iraq and the archterrorist.

Bin Laden is believed to have met repeatedly with officers of Iraq’s Special Security Organization, a secret police agency run by Saddam’s son Qusay. Bin Laden also seems to have ties to Iraq’s Mukhabarat, another one of its intelligence services.

Perhaps the most dramatic meeting occurred in December 1998, when Farouk Hijazi, a senior officer in the Mukhabarat who later became ambassador to Turkey, journeyed deep into the icy Hindu Kush mountains near Kandahar, Afghanistan. Mr. Hijazi is “thought to have offered bin Laden asylum in Iraq,” according to a 1999 report in the Guardian, a British newspaper.

That same year, an Arab intelligence officer, who knows Saddam personally, predicted in Newsweek: “Very soon you will be witnessing large-scale terrorist activity run by the Iraqis.” The Arab official said these terror operations would be run under “false flags” --spook-speak for front groups–including bin Laden’s organization. And Iraqi intelligence agents were in contact with bin Laden in the days leading up to the Sept. 11 attacks, U.S. intelligence sources told the Washington Times’ Bill Gertz.

A Saddam-bin Laden partnership would offer both sides advantages. The Iraqi dictator would gain an energized terrorist network, whose actions he could plausibly deny. Bin Laden would gain expertise and the world-wide logistical support that only a client state can offer. Certainly, bin Laden has need of Saddam’s skills–developed with the aid of the Soviets and East Germans–for planning covert operations, forging false documents and coordinating large campaigns over vast areas. Given their personal history, several of the hijackers needed false papers and concealment skills to enter and remain in the U.S. The FBI has acknowledged that it was searching unsuccessfully for two of the hijackers two weeks before the attacks.

“It’s clear that the Iraqis would like to have bin Laden in Iraq,” Vincent Cannistraro, former head of the CIA’s counterintelligence efforts, told Knight Ridder in 1999. He added that “the Iraqis have all the technological elements, the tradecraft that bin Laden lacks, and they have Abu Nidal,” the notorious Palestinian bomb expert.

Most of all, bin Laden needs money. His Al Qaeda organization operates in some 50 countries. Informed estimates put bin Laden’s personal wealth at perhaps $30 million–not the $300 million usually cited in the press–and this probably is not enough to sustain a global terror network over many years. Bin Laden told an Arab reporter that he lost $150 million in Sudanese investments. What’s left of his fortune is tied up in real estate in Sudan, Yemen and elsewhere or has been frozen by various governments in the past few years. Sanctions notwithstanding, Saddam is far more liquid. Forbes estimates his personal fortune at $7 billion.

Iraq doesn’t shrink from financing terrorism. Baghdad has two intelligence services that have funded and planned terrorist campaigns carried out by independent organizations, starting in 1969 in eastern Iran.

Saddam and bin Laden share a powerful hate for America, and both cite the Gulf War as a turning point. Saddam suffered a crushing defeat and subsequent sanctions crippled the Iraqi economy and stymied its buildup of nuclear and biological weapons. Upon learning of the first President Bush’s 1992 election defeat, Saddam joyously fired his pistol into the sky and declared on Iraqi radio: “The mother of all battles continues and will continue.”

Bin Laden called Saudi Arabia’s alliance with the U.S. during the Gulf War “treason.” He regards the U.S. as guilty of war crimes against Iraqis and believes that non-Muslims shouldn’t have military bases on holy sands of Arabia.

Bin Laden’s Feb. 23, 1998, call for jihad lists three grievances: that U.S. warplanes use bases in Saudi Arabia to patrol the skies of Iraq, that United Nations sanctions have caused grievous suffering in Iraq, and that America’s Iraq policy is designed to divert attention from Israel’s treatment of Muslims. In short, bin Laden’s call to arms reads as if it was issued from Baghdad.

Aside from Saddam’s links to bin Laden and his known hostility to America, there is a wealth of intriguing connections between Iraq and this past week’s attacks. Mohamed Atta, believed to be the commander of the hijacking crew that smashed American Airlines flight 11 into the World Trade Center, reportedly met with an Iraqi intelligence agent in Europe a few months ago. U.S. intelligence reports from Southeast Asia suggest that Iraq played a role in training the hijackers who attacked America, according to Time magazine. An Iraqi intelligence operative, Salah Suleiman, was arrested near the Afghan border by Pakistani authorities last October.

Certainly, Iraq seems to be acting strangely. Hours after the attacks, Iraqi soldiers moved away from likely military targets, notes Neil Partrick, a London-based analyst.

And Iraq, alone among the 22 members of the Arab League, failed to condemn the atrocities of Sept. 11. Indeed, Baghdad celebrated them. Saddam’s government issued a statement, quoted widely in Al-Iraq and other state-run papers, that said America deserved the attacks.

Perhaps Iraq’s official response indicates nothing more than a continuing hatred of America, but Mideast leaders who are no friends of the U.S. acted differently. Iran sent its condolences. Yasser Arafat expressed sorrow and gave blood. Even Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi called for Muslim aid groups to help Americans, adding that the U.S. had the “right to take revenge.”

For almost a decade, Saddam has waged a secret terror campaign against Americans, according to terrorism experts, former government officials, U.S. government reports and newspaper accounts from around the world. That Iraqi-inspired terror campaign–working through Osama bin Laden and others–is believed to include foiled assassination attempts against President Bush p?re in Kuwait in April 1993 and against President Clinton in the Philippines in November 1994. The terror campaign seems to include the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center; a 1995 bombing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that killed five American soldiers; a massive 1995 bombing of U.S. troop barracks at Al Khobar towers in Saudi Arabia, which killed 19 Americans soldiers; the simultaneous bombings in 1998 of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, which killed 224; and last year’s attack on the USS Cole in Yemen, which killed 17 sailors and wounded 39.

Knowledgeable observers point to wide-ranging Iraqi terrorist activity. James Woolsey, who served as director of central intelligence during the Clinton administration, has repeatedly raised the issue of Iraqi involvement in last week’s attacks and past terrorist assaults. Laurie Mylroie, author of “Study of Revenge: Saddam Hussein’s Unfinished War Against America” and a Clinton Iraq adviser, presents a compelling case that Iraqi agents were behind a string of bombings.

Iraq’s secret war against America probably began with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Iraq became involved, Ms. Mylroie believes, after learning of the bomb plot from a terrorist holed up in Iraq who was an uncle of one of the ringleaders. One of the perpetrators placed 46 calls–some more than an hour long–to that uncle in a single month before the bombing, according to phone records collected by the FBI.

The two ringleaders both had connections to Iraq. The mastermind, Ramzi Ahmed Yousef, entered the U.S. on an Iraqi passport and was known to his associates as “Rashid the Iraqi.” It was he who persuaded the bombers to make their target the World Trade Center. The other man, Abdul Rahman Yasin, fled to Baghdad, where, ABC News reported in 1994, he had been put on the government payroll. He is believed to be still at large in Iraq. “The majority of senior law-enforcement officers in New York believe that Iraq was involved,” Jim Fox, who ran the FBI’s investigation of the World Trade Center bombing, told Ms. Mylroie. Egyptian and Saudi intelligence sources also told U.S. officials that Iraq organized the bombing.

Iraqi agents, Ms. Mylroie persuasively argues, also supplied false passports and escape routes. They may have also provided bomb-making expertise and money. The hydrogen-cyanide gas that was supposed to be spread by the explosion–luckily it was burned up instead–probably has origins in Iraq’s chemical-weapons program, Ms. Mylroie concludes. The Iraqis, who had the Third World’s largest poison-gas operations prior to the Gulf War, have perfected the technique of making hydrogen-cyanide gas, which the Nazis called Zyklon-B.

The Iraqi terror campaign intensified in the mid-1990s, after bin Laden and Iraqi intelligence became better acquainted, most likely in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan. In that dusty city, Iraq ran an extensive intelligence hub until the late 1990s, when Sudanese officials allegedly told them to leave. Bin Laden was based in Khartoum until 1996, when Sudan kicked him out at the request of the U.S. government, a representative of the Sudanese government told me. There are documented meetings that occurred between bin Laden and Iraqi agents at the time.

After a June 1996 Arab League summit–the first since the Gulf War–issued a communiqu? in favor of maintaining sanctions against Iraq, Iraq’s government-controlled press seethed with anger. “Before it is too late, the Arabs should rectify the sin they committed against Iraq,” one state-run paper warned. Saudi Arabia was the prime mover behind the Arab League’s bold statement. Two days after the meeting ended, a truck bomb exploded outside the Al Khobar towers in Saudi Arabia. The U.S government never publicly charged Iraq, but Gen. Wafiq Samarai, an Iraqi defector, did. He said Saddam had asked him to join a secret committee to commit terrorist acts against U.S. forces during the Gulf War. The Al Khobar bombing was strikingly similar to the plans of that committee, Mr. Samarai said.

Next, Iraq seems to have played a role in bin Laden’s plot to bomb two U.S embassies in East Africa. Beginning on May 1, 1998, Iraq warned of “dire consequences” if the U.N. sanctions were not lifted and the weapons-inspection teams removed. Eight days later, bin Laden released another statement calling for jihad against America. Throughout the summer, Iraq’s and bin Laden’s threatening statements moved in lockstep. Then Iraq expelled U.N. weapons inspectors on Aug. 5. Two days later, the bombs went off in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. Dire consequences, indeed.

Why didn’t the Clinton administration follow up on the Iraqi connection? Part of the answer is bureaucratic bungling. The New Jersey FBI office released a suspect who was sought by the New York office in connection with the 1993 twin towers bomb plot. There was little communication or trust between the FBI and the National Security Agency. And the FBI turned much of its evidence in the 1993 bombings to the defendants long before America’s national-security specialists saw it. During the Clinton years, America’s antiterrorist units suffered from the lowest ebb of morale since the 1970s, according to a recent National Commission on Terrorism report.

Another possibility is that administration officials didn’t want to see it, that they saw their job as containing Saddam, not confronting him. Sandy Berger, President Clinton’s National Security Adviser, told the Los Angeles Times in 1996 that dealing with Saddam was “little bit like a Whack-a-Mole game at the circus: They bop up and you whack them down, and if they bop up again, you bop them back down again.”

To avoid targeting Iraq, Clinton administration officials blamed the governments of Sudan and Afghanistan or a loose network of Islamic extremists. Both explanations seem incomplete. Sudan and Afghanistan are among the world’s poorest nations; their governments cannot control sizeable sections of their own territories. While both governments are run by Islamic extremists and have long been havens for terrorists, they lack the ability to act alone. Iraq has strong ties to both of these nations.

The idea that loose networks of Islamic hardliners randomly come together to plot attacks is also hard to credit. It takes organization, money, patience and precision to carry out these attacks–qualities not usually present in volatile, itinerant extremists. Clinton officials should have noticed that the 1998 U.S. embassy bombs detonated within nine minutes of each other and the perpetrators had false papers and plane tickets for Pakistan.

They also should have grasped that the terrorists are political extremists–not Islamic zealots. This is also true of the perpetrators of the Sept. 11 attacks. Mohammed Atta slugged down vodka like a sailor, notes Time magazine. The night before the attacks, several men with knowledge of the impending attacks are reported to have had a drunken party at a Florida strip club–two major violations of Islamic law. Many of the perpetrators lacked beards, which fundamentalists believe the Koran instructs cannot be shaved. One disco-loving hijacker has been traced to another Al Qaeda terrorist plot in the Philippines, where a fellow terrorist lived with a non-Muslim girlfriend. A third terrorist boasted of his sexual conquests, on a phone tapped by the Philippine police. Audio files on the computer used by the 1993 World Trade Center bombers contain numerous obscenities. And so on.

Even overlooking the Koran’s injunctions against murder and killing of women in war, the lifestyles of the Al Qaeda terrorists don’t reflect orthodox Islam. But the Clinton administration kept talking about a shadowy network of Islamic extremists–not a campaign of terror by a vengeful Saddam Hussein.

The scale of last week’s devastation requires a sober look at America’s enemies, starting with Iraq. If Iraq is behind the Sept. 11 attacks and the terrorist assaults of the past decade, then Americans will know that they were not the victims of senseless hate, but malevolent calculation. And President Bush will know that winning the war against terrorism will require him to win the war his father began.

Mr. Miniter is an editorial page writer for The Wall Street Journal Europe. His column appears Fridays.


Sunday, September 23, 2001
(Melbourne Herald Sun)

The former head of Israeli’s Mossad secret service, Rafi Eitan, and a former CIA director, R. James Woolsey, said there are clear indications that the Iraqi president played a leading role in the attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon.

“I have no doubt whatsoever that the mastermind of this atrocity is none other than the Iraqi dictator,” said Mr Eitan, a security adviser to three Israeli governments and mastermind of the capture of Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann in May 1960.

This week’s revelation that Mohamed Atta, 33, an Egyptian suspected of hijacking the first plane to strike the World Trade Centre, met an Iraqi intelligence official in Europe earlier this year, adds weight to the theory.

Officials have also suggested bin Laden was in contact with Iraqi agents from his base in Afghanistan in the days before the attacks.

Mr Eitan said bin Laden may have been a partner, or merely a pawn, in a plot by Baghdad to strike back following its Gulf War defeat and to show the world it is still capable of action despite 10 years’ of crippling UN sanctions.

So link there Mr. Kerry huh? That the War on Terror is not linked to Saddam Hussien

Maybe someone should go and give Mr. Kerry, or his advisors this link:
Or should we forget about the past, totally. According to you, we should
Turn paack the hands of time to Pre 9/11.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/post_005.htm

Joe

[quote]Lumpy wrote:

That’s NOT A PLAN, it’s a LIST OF GOALS.

Bush does not have a plan for victory. Bush does not have an exit strategy. [/quote]

Since when does a president announce specific military strategy to the public in time of war? I suspect there are very detailed strategies already mapped out. I don’t think they will be available to LUmpy via the net though.

RSU,

“I would like to see Bush put some tough questions to Kerry – and I’d like to see Kerry knock them out of the park with a bold, honest stance.”

My God.

Have you ever watched or listened to John Kerry?

Once?

Please go to GeorgeBush.com and download Kerry’s position on Iraq.

Please.

JeffR

[quote]Right Side Up wrote:

I would like to see Bush put some tough questions to Kerry – and I’d like to see Kerry knock them out of the park with a bold, honest stance.
[/quote]

In order for Kerry to ‘knock them out of the park’ he’s got to figure out which side of the plate he’s swining from - and stay there.

My money says Kerry will be conflicted on which end of the bat to hold.

JeffR, to answer your question and not extracting what implication I think you’re making, yes, I have watched John Kerry speak.

Anyway, here’s some more dirty politics going on…kind of like “Dems will ban Bible” claims as of late…silly.

Bush Twists Kerry’s Words on Iraq

By JENNIFER LOVEN, Associated Press Writer

WACO, Texas - President Bush (news - web sites) opened several new scathing lines of attack against Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites), charges that twisted his rival’s words on Iraq (news - web sites) and made Kerry seem supportive of deposed dictator Saddam Hussein (news - web sites).

It was not unlike the spin that Kerry and his forces sometimes place on Bush’s words.

Campaigning by bus through hotly contested Wisconsin on Friday, Bush sought to counter recently sharpened criticism by Kerry about his Iraq policies:

_He stated flatly that Kerry had said earlier in the week “he would prefer the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein to the situation in Iraq today.” The line drew gasps of surprise from Bush’s audience in a Racine, Wis., park. “I just strongly disagree,” the president said.

But Kerry never said that. In a speech at New York University on Monday, he called Saddam “a brutal dictator who deserves his own special place in hell.” He added, “The satisfaction we take in his downfall does not hide this fact: We have traded a dictator for a chaos that has left America less secure.”

_Bush attacked Kerry for calling “our alliance ‘the alliance of the coerced and the bribed.’”

“You can’t build alliances if you criticize the efforts of those who are working side by side with you,” the president said in Janesville, Wis.

Kerry did use the phrase to describe the U.S.-led coalition of nations in Iraq, in a March 2003 speech in California. He was referring to the administration’s willingness to offer aid to other nations to gain support for its Iraq policies.

But Bush mischaracterized Kerry’s criticism, which has not been aimed at the countries that have contributed a relatively small number of troops and resources, but at the administration for not gaining more participation from other nations.

_Bush also suggested Kerry was undercutting an ally in a time of need, and thus unfit to be president, when he “questioned the credibility” of Iraqi interim leader Ayad Allawi.

“This great man came to our country to talk about how he’s risking his life for a free Iraq, which helps America,” the president said in Janesville. “And Senator Kerry held a press conference and questioned Prime Minister Allawi’s credibility. You can’t lead this country if your ally in Iraq feels like you question his credibility.”

Bush repeated the attack later in the day and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) echoed the message in Lafayette, La. “I must say I was appalled at the complete lack of respect Senator Kerry showed for this man of courage,” Cheney said.

Kerry’s point was that the optimistic assessments of postwar Iraq from both Bush and Allawi didn’t match previous statements by the Iraqi leader, nor the reality on the ground, and were designed to put the “best face” on failed policies.

“Facts can be stubborn things,” said Kerry spokesman Phil Singer. “When there’s a gap between the reality and the words coming out of the White House, we are going to point them out.”

That’s not to say Kerry hasn’t been playing fast and loose with Bush’s words.

Just Friday, the Kerry campaign sent an e-mail to supporters entitled “He said what?” citing Bush’s remark that he had seen “a poll that said the right track/wrong track in Iraq was better than here in America.”

The e-mail from campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill accused the president of having “no plan to get us out of Iraq” and thinking “the future of Iraq is brighter than the future of America.”

Bush has a plan for Iraq ? Kerry just disagrees that it is working. And the president wasn’t comparing Iraq’s future to that of the United States, only accurately reflecting one recent survey in Iraq and the latest trends in America that asked participants for their assessment of the direction their countries are going.

After campaigning in Wisconsin, Bush settled into his ranch in Crawford, Texas, which will be his base of operations for several days as he crams for the first debate of the presidential campaign, to be held Thursday in Coral Gables, Fla.

The first practice session was expected to take place Saturday night, with Sen. Judd Gregg (news, bio, voting record), R-N.H., playing the part of Kerry for a couple of hours and a slew of Bush’s most senior White House aides and outside advisers on hand, spokesman Scott McClellan said.

“It was not unlike the spin that Kerry and his forces sometimes place on Bush’s words.”

Yes, Jennifer and RSU that’s called politics…what a harsh business.

I wonder if Jennifer Loven would stand behind her candidate.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

I wonder if Jennifer Loven would stand behind her candidate.

[/quote]

She’s a reporter, reporting a story.

Direct Question (try to answer it and it alone): ZEB, do you think John Kerry support(s)(ed) Saddam Hussein?

RSU:

Fair enough I will answer your question, then you will answer mine.

My answer: No

My question to you: Why won’t you stand behind candidate Kerry and bet me three months off the forum on the election?

RSU,

Did you download the suggested material from GeorgeBush.com?

It’s very easy to find.

I wanted to add a little to it. Did you catch the 1997 Crossfire episode where Kerry was advocating unilateral pre-emptive action against Saddam?
Kerry said that the business dealings between france/russia made them unreliable with regard to Iraq.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it.

Hey, he’s not Bush. That’s all that really matters.

Sick.

JeffR

[quote]ZEB wrote:
RSU:

Fair enough I will answer your question, then you will answer mine.

My answer: No

My question to you: Why won’t you stand behind candidate Kerry and bet me three months off the forum on the election?[/quote]

ZEB, this question of yours has been answered on your own thread titled something like “How Kerry Will lose the Debate.” Did you not read those posts? I will not post an answer again. Refer to this thread to reread my answer.

Next question: Do you think Bush mischaracterized Kerry regarding

Yes or no?

RSU:

You just keep ducking…you can run, but you can’t hide. The forum is not that big!

Very interesting piece by Jim Hoagland on the contrast between Bush and Kerry’s views on foreign policy, specifically defense policy:

Worldviews That Are Worlds Apart

By JIM HOAGLAND
The Washington Post
September 27, 2004

Democratic nominee John Kerry would change the situation. U.S. President George W. Bush would change the world.

The electoral choice in 2004 is a stark and consequential one. These two candidates are night and day – more precisely, they are emotion vs. reason, instinct vs. intellect. A contest of innate spirits will animate and perhaps be decisive in their three televised debates.

Messrs. Bush and Kerry project not only two Americas in their campaign speeches but two very different worlds that they would attempt to mold and lead. The course of the election and of U.S. foreign policy for the next four years rides on how uncommitted voters respond to the candidates’ emerging differences of approach and of essence.

Mr. Kerry’s slashing attack on Mr. Bush’s “stubborn incompetence” in the war in Iraq last week at New York University crystallized the choice that voters face in foreign policy. This is far more than an argument over tactics, as this election’s Third Man – Ralph Nader – claims.

The incumbent president is the radical in this unorthodox U.S. election year. In his view, a new threat to American security, in a new geographic region and from a new kind of enemy, demands a paradigm shift in international behavior that can be unilaterally enforced by U.S. power if necessary.

Mr. Bush believes that America’s friends and foes abroad can – and must – be made to change their ways to make the world safer for democracies and particularly for the United States. Only by making the regimes of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia and Libya understand that their very survival is at stake can effective cooperation be gained in the war on al Qaeda and other parts of the loosely connected and fanatical Islamist network.

The challenger is for once the pragmatist and traditionalist on foreign policy. Mr. Kerry first would change the U.S. approach to the world, then persuade and gently pressure allies and adversaries to return to established patterns of cooperation or coerced behavior.

Restoring NATO’s Cold War cohesion is a primary goal for Mr. Kerry but a secondary tactical issue for Mr. Bush in grappling with turmoil in the Middle East, where European interests and reflexes often run counter to those of the United States. Israel is important to Mr. Kerry as a diplomatic and political partner; to Mr. Bush as a strategic ally in waging a long, necessary war.

These key differences are beginning to emerge clearly from an erratic, inconclusive campaign that has been fogged in by egregious personal bitterness and overwhelming media focus on two sideshows: controversy over service records from the Vietnam era and the periodic floundering of Mr. Kerry’s campaign apparatus. While most polls portray Mr. Bush as having the upper hand on U.S. national security, they also show him still vulnerable to events and to Mr. Kerry’s sharpening attacks on Iraq.

That is reason enough for caution and deeper deliberation by voters as well as pundits. It is also prudent to remember that campaigns produce their own dynamic of change as issues become more serious and contrasts more vivid. Other nations adapt in real time to what Messrs. Kerry and Bush say (and are), and subtly change the policy environment the two leaders pretend to command.

This is particularly true for Mr. Kerry, whose repeated promises to get Europe to shoulder more of the burden in Iraq and in the war on terrorism have begun to worry even those Europeans who are favorably disposed to a change at the White House in January.

Gerhard Schroeder’s Germany is perhaps the most important example of a country that fully expects diplomatic tensions to continue if Mr. Bush is reelected but is also beginning to fret that a new crisis in NATO could emerge if a Kerry administration piles too many burdens on the alliance.

“I think some of my colleagues were perturbed by the briefings they heard at the Democratic convention in July about how much more Europe would have to do for President Kerry,” says one European diplomat. “All the speeches since then saying U.S. allies and not just Halliburton have to rebuild Iraq just add to the concern.”

Another future problem lies in the way Mr. Kerry and John Edwards have portrayed (although not named) Britain, Italy, Japan and other nations as having been bribed and coerced into serving in the coalition now in Iraq.

The fundamental task in foreign policy is to balance U.S. goals with U.S. capabilities. Failing thus far to make a convincing case that they know how to achieve this balance is one of the few things that Messrs. Bush and Kerry have in common.

This buttresses my points above:

No French or German turn on Iraq
By Jo Johnson in Paris, Betrand Benoit in Berlin and James Harding in Washington
Published: September 26 2004 21:13 | Last updated: September 26 2004 21:13

French and German government officials say they will not significantly increase military assistance in Iraq even if John Kerry, the Democratic presidential challenger, is elected on November 2.

Mr Kerry, who has attacked President George W. Bush for failing to broaden the US-led alliance in Iraq, has pledged to improve relations with European allies and increase international military assistance in Iraq.

“I cannot imagine that there will be any change in our decision not to send troops, whoever becomes president,” Gert Weisskirchen, member of parliament and foreign policy expert for Germany’s ruling Social Democratic Party, said in an interview.

“That said, Mr Kerry seems genuinely committed to multilateralism and as president he would find it easier than Mr Bush to secure the German government’s backing in other matters.”

Even though Nato last week overcame members’ long-running reservations about a training mission to Iraq and agreed to set up an academy there for 300 soldiers, neither Paris nor Berlin will participate.

Michel Barnier, the French foreign minister, said last week that France, which has tense relations with interim prime minister Iyad Allawi, had no plans to send troops “either now or later”.

That view reflects the concerns of many EU and Nato officials, who say the dangers in Iraq and the difficulty of extricating troops already there could make European governments reluctant to send personnel, regardless of the outcome of the US election.

A French government official said: "People don’t expect that much would change under a Kerry administration, even if things can only get better. We do not anticipate a sudden honeymoon in the event Kerry replaces Bush.

“A lot depends on who is in power in both Washington and Baghdad. If there’s change in both countries then it’s possible we would re-examine our position, but I don’t expect a massive change either way.”

A German government spokesman declined to comment on the outcome of the US presidential election. But the feeling in Chancellor Gerhard Schr?der’s office is that, if anything, Berlin is growing less rather than more likely to change its mind as security conditions deteriorate in Iraq.

Mr Schr?der would also be unlikely to renege on his 2002 electoral commitment not to send troops as a new general election looms in 2006.

There is no sign that the German public, which loathes the US president, would accept risking German lives to salvage what is widely seen as Mr Bush’s botched war.

In fact, high-ranking German officials are privately concerned at the prospect of Mr Kerry becoming president, arguing it would not change US demands but make it more difficult to reject them.

Both France and Germany, however, have said they would contribute to the reduction of Iraq’s debt and participate in economic and environmental development programmes. Berlin already trains Iraqi security forces outside Iraq and France has said it would do so.

Mr Kerry is expected to make Mr Bush’s record of alienating foreign capitals and undermining US credibility in the world one of the chief arguments on Thursday night when he confronts the president in the first presidential debate.

The televised debate, which is expected to be watched by more than the 46.6m people who watched the debate in 2000, will focus on foreign policy and national security.

In a speech hammering Mr Bush for his decision to lead the US into Iraq, Mr Kerry said last week that in Afghanistan “I will lead our allies to share the burden.”

He continued: “the Bush administration would have you believe that when it comes to our allies, it won’t make a difference who is president. They say the Europeans won’t help us, no matter what. But I have news for President Bush: just because you can’t do something, doesn’t mean it can’t be done.”

The German government continues to oppose sending troops to Iraq under any circumstance.

Berlin was one of Europe’s most vocal opponents of the invasion of Iraq and, with sizeable forces in the Balkan and Afghanistan, it has also argued its troops are overstretched.

Although the government did not oppose Nato’s decision to start training inside Iraq, it still thinks the deployment is counter- productive.

“Nato personnel will become targets for attacks,” one official said on Sunday.