Impending U.S. Bankruptcy

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Sloth wrote:
Staying on this course will require the following in 2040:

  1. Raising federal taxes…ahem…2 times present levels
    or
  2. Cutting Government spending by…wait for it…60%
    or
  3. Some mixture of both…

And no, we won’t grow our way out of it. We’d need double digit growth every year for 75 years to fill the gap. To illustrate how impossible that is, the economy grew at an average of 3.2% per year during the '90’s.

Did I pull this off of some kooky, doom and gloom, small government site? Nope. I pulled it off our government’s accounting office site. Feel free to look at the whole report.

http://www.gao.gov/cghome/d08489cg.pdf

Yep. Simple fact: the post WWII economy has been financed by ever-increasing debt. This debt grows exponentially and compounds until it equals all the wealth of the world, or it stops doing so before then. In either case, its a disaster.

Under either scenario, since the people who gain from such spending are unwilling/unable to stop it, it will have to stop without human intervention and following economic law. We will have a crash and debt repudiation of titanic, perhaps biblical proportions. This is a mathematical certitude, the same as 2 + 2 = 4.

That’s when we get a global absolute tyranny/oligarchy.

[/quote]

How does a US market crash equate to “a global absolute tyranny/oligarchy?”

Because, don’t you know… the U.S. is the only beacon of hope and freedom left in the world.

Without team America world police, the barbarian hordes will quickly overrun the entire world’s populace and destroy all that’s good and decent for humanity.

[quote]Weasel42 wrote:
How does a US market crash equate to “a global absolute tyranny/oligarchy?”
[/quote]

The world super powers will attempt to employ an FDR-like “New Deal” on a very massive, all-encompassing level. Government will attempt to assert its dominance into every aspect of private life to “ensure” this tragedy never happens again. Of course, they will just prolong the effects of a crash just like FDR did.

[quote]Jack_Dempsey wrote:
Yet, here we sit, enjoying a quality of life that the average Roman, in the best of times, would have gnawed off both arms with their teeth to experience.
[/quote]
The technological advances we enjoy today compared to the Romans has little to do with the government we employ to “protect our empire” that is, in fact, bankrupting our country. Quality of life is completely relative and a function of productivity – and it just so happens that we have been able to remain productive in spite of the desecration and bloating of the currency by our great protectors. We live in an era where debt is ignored and we will eventually pay for it. You can call that what you like but it doesn’t change the facts of reality, nor can history be rewritten.

You make comparisons of apples to bananas by arguing the quality of life between ancient Rome and the Western world. One comparison that is cogent, however, is how the Roman empire fell and how every other civilization before and after it fell.

You first.

[quote]Jason32 wrote:
Because, don’t you know… the U.S. is the only beacon of hope and freedom left in the world.

Without team America world police, the barbarian hordes will quickly overrun the entire world’s populace and destroy all that’s good and decent for humanity. [/quote]

Without America and most of Europe.

Do you like most of what is left?

[quote]Jason32 wrote:
Because, don’t you know… the U.S. is the only beacon of hope and freedom left in the world.

Without team America world police, the barbarian hordes will quickly overrun the entire world’s populace and destroy all that’s good and decent for humanity. [/quote]

You actually aren’t far from the truth — every little tribal chieftain will assert his country’s ‘right’ to confiscate international investment. The only thing that prevents that now is military/economic force.

Chavez in Venezuela is doing this NOW. What’ll happen when swarms of countries repudiate their dollars and debts? Most stocks will simply implode. Any stocks that are purely domestic in civilised countries may survive though.

Do you think Exxon or General Electric will stand idly by and watch billions upon billions be confiscated? Nope. Exxon is suing Chavez as we speak. What will he do if he loses?

What will happen if the whole third world no longer has a teat to suck on, for its existence? What happens to the banks who’ve lent them trillions?

Global depression, worldwide government by brute force… Its pretty much a lock.

Just to be clear here. I’m simply using numbers from the government’s own accounting office to demonstrate that drastic reform and spending cuts will have to take place in order to prevent a future financial crisis in the US. I’m not predicting that the world’s population will devolve into poo-flinging cannibals. Or, that a totalitarian and world spanning regime will rise up from the ashes of a US meltdown.

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Weasel42 wrote:
How does a US market crash equate to “a global absolute tyranny/oligarchy?”

The world super powers will attempt to employ an FDR-like “New Deal” on a very massive, all-encompassing level. Government will attempt to assert its dominance into every aspect of private life to “ensure” this tragedy never happens again. Of course, they will just prolong the effects of a crash just like FDR did. [/quote]

Or we will just inflate and those that keep their money under the mattress and those that hold debt will be screwed while the rest of us keep plugging away.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Or we will just inflate and those that keep their money under the mattress and those that hold debt will be screwed while the rest of us keep plugging away.[/quote]

What about old people who live on a fixed income? What about marginally employed workers with no access to credit? What about all that equity people are losing in their homes to both devaluation of the housing market and dollar?

We have to borrow money from other nations to pay the interest on the US debt. How long do you think other countries will loan us money to pay the interest on our debt knowing the return is going to suck?

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
Or we will just inflate and those that keep their money under the mattress and those that hold debt will be screwed while the rest of us keep plugging away.

What about old people who live on a fixed income? What about marginally employed workers with no access to credit? What about all that equity people are losing in their homes to both devaluation of the housing market and dollar?

[/quote]

Old people with a fixed income that has no hope of growth will have to live with their kids or get jobs.

Wages will rise so I see no problem there.

Homes will not devalue. They will inflate.

That is their problem. Just imagine if China didn’t have anyplace to spend it’s hard US cash. Or perhaps they wouldn’t have any hard US cash because we would not be buying crap from China anymore. Tragic.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Wages will rise so I see no problem there.[/quote]

Not fast enough to keep up with inflation. It used to only require one income to support an entire family (including grandma). Now grandma has to take a part-time at Wal-Mart to buy her meds.

This is dependent on the particular market. In the long run as prices are inflated home prices will also rise but whenever the market takes a downturn (as it is now) many people will lose wealth.

It’s just business, nothing personal.

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
Wages will rise so I see no problem there.

Not fast enough to keep up with inflation. It used to only require one income to support an entire family (including grandma). Now grandma has to take a part-time at Wal-Mart to buy her meds.
[/quote]
It still only takes one income. Just don’t play keep up with the Joneses. Ditch the cable, the cell phone, new cars, 3,000 square foot homes…

Only if they make bad decisions.

[quote]
Just imagine if China didn’t have anyplace to spend it’s hard US cash. Or perhaps they wouldn’t have any hard US cash because we would not be buying crap from China anymore.

It’s just business, nothing personal.[/quote]

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Weasel42 wrote:
How does a US market crash equate to “a global absolute tyranny/oligarchy?”

The world super powers will attempt to employ an FDR-like “New Deal” on a very massive, all-encompassing level. Government will attempt to assert its dominance into every aspect of private life to “ensure” this tragedy never happens again. Of course, they will just prolong the effects of a crash just like FDR did.

Or we will just inflate and those that keep their money under the mattress and those that hold debt will be screwed while the rest of us keep plugging away.[/quote]

Yep, those widows and orphans are happy to subsidize inflation.

Anyway, you simply don’t understand how inflation works — the printed money is circulated before the value is diluted. As more people catch on, it gets harder and harder to sucker-punch anyone. Everyone knows the trick, spends the money as quickly as they get it.

When no one is left to give value to the fiat money, they could literally print bushel baskets of it and…well, you know the rest.

We then get someone like Hitler, who’ll restore order. The mess is so big that only a tyranny/oligarchy can handle it. Case closed.

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Weasel42 wrote:
How does a US market crash equate to “a global absolute tyranny/oligarchy?”

The world super powers will attempt to employ an FDR-like “New Deal” on a very massive, all-encompassing level. Government will attempt to assert its dominance into every aspect of private life to “ensure” this tragedy never happens again. Of course, they will just prolong the effects of a crash just like FDR did.

Or we will just inflate and those that keep their money under the mattress and those that hold debt will be screwed while the rest of us keep plugging away.

Yep, those widows and orphans are happy to subsidize inflation.

Anyway, you simply don’t understand how inflation works — the printed money is circulated before the value is diluted. As more people catch on, it gets harder and harder to sucker-punch anyone. Everyone knows the trick, spends the money as quickly as they get it.

When no one is left to give value to the fiat money, they could literally print bushel baskets of it and…well, you know the rest.

We then get someone like Hitler, who’ll restore order. The mess is so big that only a tyranny/oligarchy can handle it. Case closed.

[/quote]

I fully understand how inflation works. Most of you clowns don’t. That is why you are fixated on the gold standard or fascism and other nonsense.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Weasel42 wrote:
How does a US market crash equate to “a global absolute tyranny/oligarchy?”

The world super powers will attempt to employ an FDR-like “New Deal” on a very massive, all-encompassing level. Government will attempt to assert its dominance into every aspect of private life to “ensure” this tragedy never happens again. Of course, they will just prolong the effects of a crash just like FDR did.

Or we will just inflate and those that keep their money under the mattress and those that hold debt will be screwed while the rest of us keep plugging away.

Yep, those widows and orphans are happy to subsidize inflation.

Anyway, you simply don’t understand how inflation works — the printed money is circulated before the value is diluted. As more people catch on, it gets harder and harder to sucker-punch anyone. Everyone knows the trick, spends the money as quickly as they get it.

When no one is left to give value to the fiat money, they could literally print bushel baskets of it and…well, you know the rest.

We then get someone like Hitler, who’ll restore order. The mess is so big that only a tyranny/oligarchy can handle it. Case closed.

I fully understand how inflation works. Most of you clowns don’t. That is why you are fixated on the gold standard or fascism and other nonsense.[/quote]

Zap,
This is one of those discussions that pins itself on a viewpoint. You and I may share some not shared by the “youngsters” here.
For example, this business about “printing money” and inflation. That term, we know, is an allegory. In modern reality, the costs of renting money (nominal interest rates) go up and down, and value is added or subtracted from an investment economy thereby.

To fix a value, and limit or fix an interest rate, freezes the value of investment over time. Deflation is not yummy. As I intimated above, if we limit the productivity and imagination of the American people, we will be in real trouble.

Second example. I was speaking with a well regarded gold and commodity trader today, casually. He points out, accurately I believe, that if the 1980 price of gold had kept up with nominal inflation, it should be $2200 per ounce. So what does that mean: We should buy gold futures for $2199–no one else seems so eager to make that bet. Is gold undervalued? Or is it the case that other commodities are inflated relative to gold?

I expect that gold bugs would protest, but it stands to reason that gold, commonly referred to as a “hedge against inflation” is a very poor hedge…sometimes. (Its value is largely dependent on fear, fear as expressed in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore.) Or perhaps it should be allowed to rise and fall with/against other commodities, without interference (i.e., the gold standard).

OK. The fire ants will now come out of their mound…

[quote]orion wrote:
What people like you apparently do not get is that all societies finally did collapse so all those doom and gloom people over all the centuries have actually been right.

Always.
[/quote]

A broken clock is right twice a day, too.

Always.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
orion wrote:
What people like you apparently do not get is that all societies finally did collapse so all those doom and gloom people over all the centuries have actually been right.

Always.

A broken clock is right twice a day, too.

Always. [/quote]

True,

but dismissing someone predicting that we cannot finance our political systems any longer because such a breakdown could not happen when in fact it happened over and over and over again…

I do not know what is a so hard about.

It is national debt, social security, demographics and a calculator…

… and we are looking at an elderly population dominating at the elections facing the very real threat of having to stand in in in front of soup kitchens do make ends meet.

This is going to get interesting.

[quote]orion wrote:

Always.

True,

but dismissing someone predicting that we cannot finance our political systems any longer because such a breakdown could not happen when in fact it happened over and over and over again…

I do not know what is a so hard about.

It is national debt, social security, demographics and a calculator…

… and we are looking at an elderly population dominating at the elections facing the very real threat of having to stand in in in front of soup kitchens do make ends meet.

This is going to get interesting.

[/quote]

We? Since when did you become a citizen?

Here’s the problem. The only constitutional big budget item we have is defense. All of the social welfare bullshit is unconstitutional. But the politicians have promised everyone a full retirement plan complete with medical coverage.

No one wants to give the frees shit back. You can’t raise taxes high enough to cover the cost of ll the freebies, so what are you left with? Borrowing.

Until the politicians grow the stones to eliminate the handouts, we will continue to be in debt.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
orion wrote:

Always.

True,

but dismissing someone predicting that we cannot finance our political systems any longer because such a breakdown could not happen when in fact it happened over and over and over again…

I do not know what is a so hard about.

It is national debt, social security, demographics and a calculator…

… and we are looking at an elderly population dominating at the elections facing the very real threat of having to stand in in in front of soup kitchens do make ends meet.

This is going to get interesting.

We? Since when did you become a citizen?

Here’s the problem. The only constitutional big budget item we have is defense. All of the social welfare bullshit is unconstitutional. But the politicians have promised everyone a full retirement plan complete with medical coverage.

No one wants to give the frees shit back. You can’t raise taxes high enough to cover the cost of ll the freebies, so what are you left with? Borrowing.

Until the politicians grow the stones to eliminate the handouts, we will continue to be in debt.
[/quote]

There is only so much money people will borrow you.

There is only so much money you can print.

Once those options are gone this system will crash, maybe 5-10 years after Europe, maybe at the same time.

[i]Who’s afraid of the sun?
Who would question the goodness of the mighty?
We who banish the threat,
When your little ones all go nighty nighty?
Well there’s no time for doubt right now,
And less time to explain.
So get back on your horses,
Kiss my ring,
And join our next campaign,

And the Empire grows
with the news that we’re winning,
With more fear to conquer,
more gold thread for spinning,
Till it’s bright as the sun,
Shining on everyone.

Some would say that we’ve forced our words,
And we find that ingenuously churlish.
Words are just words.
Don’t be so pessimistic, weak and girlish.
We like strong, happy people
Who don’t think
there’s something wrong with pride,
Work makes them free,
And we spread that freedom far and wide,

And the Empire grows the seeds of its glory,
For every five tanks,
Plant a sentimental story,

Till they worship the son,
Even Christ loving ones.
And we’ll kill the terrorizers
and a million of their races,

But when our people torture you,
that’s a few random cases.
Don’t question the sun.
It doesn’t help anyone.

But the journalists cried out,
When it was too late to stop us.
Everyone had awakened
To the dream they could enter our colossus.
And now I’m right, yeah, you said I’m right,
There’s nothing that can harm me,
Cause the sun never sets on my dungeons or my army,

And the Empire fell on its own splintered axis,
And the Emperor wanes as the silver moon waxes,
And the farmers will find old coins
In their strawberry fields,
While somebody somewhere twists his ring
And someone kneels.
Oh, where is the sun Shining for everyone?
Where is the sun Shining for everyone?[/i]

– Dar Williams