Greece

NorCal916 · June 30, 2015, 1:49pm

[quote]MaximusB wrote:

[quote]jjackkrash wrote:

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:

[quote]NorCal916 wrote:
ATMs are now working…

I say no bailout. There needs to be a clear lesson learned for Europe to see. If there are small international ripples in the markets, so be it. It’s better to learn our lesson with an economy like Greece as opposed to France. [/quote]

What’s the lesson? That, after accepting billions in aid, a country should default on those payments and leave the Euro?

If Greece leaves, then Portugal is next. And Italy. And Spain…

It’s entirely possible that the lesson to be learned is that currency unions don’t work, but if the Euro splinters it’s going to cause much more than small ripples…
[/quote]

My old boss used to say, “If I owe you a $1,000, I got a problem. If I owe you $100,000,000, you got a problem.”

What if Greece just says, “fuck off, we’re done paying”? Who is more fucked, Greece, or their creditors? I’m not convinced its Greece and I think Greece holds way more leverage than most people want to acknowledge.
[/quote]

This is the mantra of Liberal/ Socialist economics… Just pass laws and build shit and figure out how to pay for it in the future. Kick the can down the road so some other asshole or group of assholes has to deal with it. Then claim tax increases are needed or the sky will fall, children will not get their education, and the place will burn down in flames (Arnold actually said this when trying to pass tax hikes when we had one of the mildest fire seasons in decades).

Attach a tax increase to some moral high ground, make your opponent look like a heartless bastard.
[/quote]

There is a big issue here. The socialists think that loan forgiveness is a new form of redistribution. They feel they are entitled to the money, and if they can’t pay, oh well.

MaximusB · June 30, 2015, 1:51pm

Somewhat related.

Supreme Court agrees to hear case challenging California union fees

The Supreme Court said Tuesday it would hear a major challenge to California unions for teachers and other public employees, and decide whether they may charge fees to non-members to support collective bargaining.

The court’s conservatives, led by Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., have signaled they see these forced fees as unconstitutional because they require some employees to support a cause they oppose.

countingbeans · June 30, 2015, 2:51pm

[quote]theuofh wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Am I an asshole if I gloat when this failed socialist (but I repeat myself) State fails, yet again proving that it doesn’t work?

I mean, how many times does collectivism need to implode on itself before people listen? Or do I have to made a pod cast so the Commies in the US will watch it from strabucks wifi?[/quote]

What you’re all missing out on is that Greek debt sky-rocketed under a center-right government. They were like the second biggest defense spender as a percentage of GDP in all of NATO.

Syriza ended up coming to power as a result of the actions of the previous government. [/quote]

So they increased a bunch of government spending in a “Keynesian” back-door quazi stimulus package and I’m supposed to not blame this on socialism/collectivism/big daddy government?

theuofh · June 30, 2015, 3:37pm

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]theuofh wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Am I an asshole if I gloat when this failed socialist (but I repeat myself) State fails, yet again proving that it doesn’t work?

I mean, how many times does collectivism need to implode on itself before people listen? Or do I have to made a pod cast so the Commies in the US will watch it from strabucks wifi?[/quote]

What you’re all missing out on is that Greek debt sky-rocketed under a center-right government. They were like the second biggest defense spender as a percentage of GDP in all of NATO.

Syriza ended up coming to power as a result of the actions of the previous government. [/quote]

So they increased a bunch of government spending in a “Keynesian” back-door quazi stimulus package and I’m supposed to not blame this on socialism/collectivism/big daddy government?

[/quote]

What you call socialism/collectivism others may call bureaucratic looting in cahoots with whoever profits from all the spent money. All the bad debt resulting from this type of behavior (not just in Greece) is what required the stimulus/QE option from the ECB.

I would politely caution against framing it in terms of the tired, old centrally planned versus free-market argument.

countingbeans · June 30, 2015, 3:42pm

[quote]theuofh wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]theuofh wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Am I an asshole if I gloat when this failed socialist (but I repeat myself) State fails, yet again proving that it doesn’t work?

I mean, how many times does collectivism need to implode on itself before people listen? Or do I have to made a pod cast so the Commies in the US will watch it from strabucks wifi?[/quote]

What you’re all missing out on is that Greek debt sky-rocketed under a center-right government. They were like the second biggest defense spender as a percentage of GDP in all of NATO.

Syriza ended up coming to power as a result of the actions of the previous government. [/quote]

So they increased a bunch of government spending in a “Keynesian” back-door quazi stimulus package and I’m supposed to not blame this on socialism/collectivism/big daddy government?

[/quote]

What you call socialism/collectivism others may call bureaucratic looting in cahoots with whoever profits from all the spent money. All the bad debt resulting from this type of behavior (not just in Greece) is what required the stimulus/QE option from the ECB.

I would politely caution against framing it in terms of the tired, old centrally planned versus free-market argument.
[/quote]

You ever sat down with anyone from “the old country”?

You basically just described the ills of socialism, well some of them, quit well. Only real difference is in Greece, they don’t force you to work, quite the perfect storm.

Aragorn · June 30, 2015, 4:45pm

[quote]NorCal916 wrote:
The Greeks probably think default is morally justified. They fault their most prominent creditor, Germany, for its “cruel past Nazi occupation of Greece, for its cold obsessions with the financial bottom line, and for its ethnocentric manipulation of the euro and the EU itself.” Lol. Seems about right.
[/quote]

“cruel past Nazi occupation” aside…a cold obsession with the bottom line is a great way to NOT go bankrupt as a country. I fail to see a problem here. Granted that they will suffer along with everybody else if this all goes in the crapper, no doubt. However, they got a sweetheart deal at the beginning of the Eurozone, and it’s not their fault they were able to drive that deal. That’s not manipulation, that’s good damn business sense.

Also in general, LOL at politicians using the word “manipulate” to denigrate other politicians. Kettle, pot.

Aragorn · June 30, 2015, 4:54pm

[quote]loppar wrote:

It seems we in Europe are facing a choice between a faceless bureaucracy wielding a disturbing amount of political and financial power and dangerous populists with creepy hidden agendas.

[/quote]

Often people in Europe think of us American “cowboys” as mildly deranged to be making such a fuss over some of the things we do financially, etc–after all, our “Left wing” is still “Center/Center-Right” in the Continental spectrum of politics.

Philosophical stance on the magnitude of any social safety net aside, what you said here is precisely one reason we Americans have historically fought tooth and nail on seemingly “small potatos”.

Sadly I do not think we will be successful, as populism has steadily gained momentum here and I have seen a degradation in the level of political and social discourse in my young life that frankly seems different in fundamental timbre from those before. Granted I don’t have my elders perspective, but that’s my opinion in very broad terms.

Dr_Pangloss · July 5, 2015, 9:33pm

Greek voters reject bailout terms in referendum, %60 to %40.

Right now euro is down approximately %1 which isn’t too bad. We’ll see what happens as we get closer to the open of the futures.

How this turns out is anyone’s guess. If you wanted to watch Europe burn, you’d want Greece to bow out of the Euro, reinstate the Drachma, and the resulting hyperinflation to decimate Greece and by extension, her creditors. Greek banks will fail almost immediately without a fresh infusion of Euros.

The best case scenario (in terms of general stability) is for Tsiparas to head back to the negotiating table, albeit in a much stronger position. Then Germany can decide how many more billion Euros it can afford to shower Greece with until the next crisis takes hold.

And in case anyone hasn’t noticed, the Chinese market has lost about %30 of it’s value - or US2 trillion - in 3 weeks.

Dr_Pangloss · July 5, 2015, 9:58pm

[quote]on edge wrote:
I think this is a long term, big picture concern that could play out over the next 10 to 20 year. In the near term Greece is small potatoes. We have a bubble starting to pop right now in China and that’s going to affect the world a lot more over the next couple of years than Greece.[/quote]

The vast majority (>%95) of Chinese stocks are held by the Chinese so whatever effects are felt beyond the Chinese borders will only be secondary or tertiary. I think that will go a long way to preventing any type of world-wide financial contagion from a Chinese crash. Additionally, it increased 2.5x in the span of a single year. Even now, the market is still %15 above it’s 2011 highs.

theuofh · July 5, 2015, 10:25pm

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:
I think this is a long term, big picture concern that could play out over the next 10 to 20 year. In the near term Greece is small potatoes. We have a bubble starting to pop right now in China and that’s going to affect the world a lot more over the next couple of years than Greece.[/quote]

The vast majority (>%95) of Chinese stocks are held by the Chinese so whatever effects are felt beyond the Chinese borders will only be secondary or tertiary. I think that will go a long way to preventing any type of world-wide financial contagion from a Chinese crash. Additionally, it increased 2.5x in the span of a single year. Even now, the market is still %15 above it’s 2011 highs.
[/quote]

I read it like it was mostly the Chinese people losing their ass, i.e. Soccer-mom equivalents buying into already over valued markets, while the banks and business community in particular were well aware of the dynamics and capitalized.

Dr_Pangloss · July 5, 2015, 11:02pm

[quote]
I read it like it was mostly the Chinese people losing their ass, i.e. Soccer-mom equivalents buying into already over valued markets, while the banks and business community in particular were well aware of the dynamics and capitalized. [/quote]
That was my interpretation as well.

The heartbreaking part is the interviews where people are quoted as saying they’re just going to continue to hold the stocks until the government comes in and makes the market go higher.

You can’t be a little bit Capitalist any more than you can be a little bit pregnant. Once you allow the markets to enforce their discipline, they’re going to do so ruthlessly and efficiently.

I read the Chinese gov’t is putting together their version of a “plunge protection team” to buoy the market during times of large losses. This is going to end poorly.

NorCal916 · July 6, 2015, 12:04am

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:
Greek voters reject bailout terms in referendum, %60 to %40.

Right now euro is down approximately %1 which isn’t too bad. We’ll see what happens as we get closer to the open of the futures.

How this turns out is anyone’s guess. If you wanted to watch Europe burn, you’d want Greece to bow out of the Euro, reinstate the Drachma, and the resulting hyperinflation to decimate Greece and by extension, her creditors. Greek banks will fail almost immediately without a fresh infusion of Euros.

The best case scenario (in terms of general stability) is for Tsiparas to head back to the negotiating table, albeit in a much stronger position. Then Germany can decide how many more billion Euros it can afford to shower Greece with until the next crisis takes hold.

And in case anyone hasn’t noticed, the Chinese market has lost about %30 of it’s value - or US2 trillion - in 3 weeks.[/quote]

Wouldn’t it be better for all countries to go back to their own currency? Screw Brussells. Sink or swim on your own coat-tails. What’s your opinion?

theuofh · July 6, 2015, 12:15am

[quote]NorCal916 wrote:

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:
Greek voters reject bailout terms in referendum, %60 to %40.

Right now euro is down approximately %1 which isn’t too bad. We’ll see what happens as we get closer to the open of the futures.

How this turns out is anyone’s guess. If you wanted to watch Europe burn, you’d want Greece to bow out of the Euro, reinstate the Drachma, and the resulting hyperinflation to decimate Greece and by extension, her creditors. Greek banks will fail almost immediately without a fresh infusion of Euros.

The best case scenario (in terms of general stability) is for Tsiparas to head back to the negotiating table, albeit in a much stronger position. Then Germany can decide how many more billion Euros it can afford to shower Greece with until the next crisis takes hold.

And in case anyone hasn’t noticed, the Chinese market has lost about %30 of it’s value - or US2 trillion - in 3 weeks.[/quote]

Wouldn’t it be better for all countries to go back to their own currency? Screw Brussells. Sink or swim on your own coat-tails. What’s your opinion?
[/quote]

Slightly off topic, but the word going around is that only like 3-4 countries are meeting the NATO 2% GDP obligation to defense spending and one of them is beyond dead broke Greece.

One of the goals of this whole thing IMO was to solidify Europe to strategically check Russian and prevent any movement towards “Balkanization” that has yielded a lot of instability in the world.

From a realist, geo-political point of view, this is a big boon to Russia and there are already words of certain EU members willing to give them some room, or at least certain voices in EU governments.

There’s a constant battle going on for world hegemony, and this is a death blow to the EU who put themselves in the running for a time.

NorCal916 · July 6, 2015, 12:36am