[quote]Bismark wrote:
[quote]pat wrote:
[quote]Bismark wrote:
[quote]pat wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]Bismark wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
So… I’ve read two or three times this may very well prompt a nuclear arms race…
Any truth to that?[/quote]
So… Yea or Nay?[/quote]
If Iran tests a nuclear weapon, horizontal nuclear proliferation in Southwest Asia is very possible. Saudi Arabia would likely be the first state to follow suit. This could be ameliorated if the US forward deploys nuclear forces in the region, thus extending its nuclear umbrella. A successful final agreement would do much to allay the security dilemma dynamics experienced by Iran’s peers in the region.[/quote]
So that is a yes then?[/quote]
If Iran actually tests an nuclear weapon, there’s already a nuclear arms race in the ME a big one.
A nuclear arms race does not have to take the form of country upon country racing to stockpile as many nuclear warheads as quickly as possible. This, I reckon, is what people think about as a nuclear arms race. And it is, most definitely. But it does not have to look like that to be a problem. It can be much more subtle than that.
Iran has centrifuges, Saudi Arabia ramps up production, Jordan, throws it’s hat into the ring and pretty soon you’ll have a nuclear arms race just in the form of power. Once you have that many nuclear players in the region, it’s not a flying leap toward the bomb. Once you establish a good nuclear program, you’re a a breath away from amassing enough U-235 or plutonium to make a bomb.
“Little Boy” the bomb we dropped on Hiroshima required only 141 lbs of U-235. How long would it take to amass that much U-235 in a place with a fully vetted nuclear power program? Not long.
That’s what makes the world’s asshole tighten up like a bear claw about an Iran with a nuclear program. I think that’s what most of us who don’t like the deal on the books worry about. It only takes one bomb to be a nightmare. It would not take long at all to enrich enough uranium to amass 141 lbs right under the noses of inspectors.
Think about how hard it would be to hide something about the size of 3 45 lbs plates and a 10’er on top in an entire country? Not hard when you have the resources of country to do it. We also do not know what else Iran is hiding. I mean, I know it would come as a shock to all of us Iran wasn’t being completely truthful. And can we really trust our international ‘inspections’ to catch every little thing they do?
Honestly, at this point it’s gone so far that I don’t think we can or will stop them from getting the bomb.
The best way to prevent them from going to far is to take out what they have. I don’t think anybody has the stomach or the balls to do that. Israel might. If they are willing, they have my blessing to proceed. It’s not like that would affect Iranian/ Israeli relations.[/quote]
What you are attempting to refer to is known as nuclear hedging, which doesn’t constitute a nuclear arms race.
[/quote]
Toe-mato, Toe-mahto. This hedging can turn into an arms race in the blink of an eye.
[quote]
I don’t know why I take the time and effort to write substantive posts if no one bothers to read them. Refer to my post at the top of the page.
As it stands, Iran’s breakout time - the time it would take to produce 27 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium - is between 2 and 3 months. A final agreement would increase breakout to 1 year, giving the international community 400-600% more time to respond to an Iranian breakout attempt.The timeline is much longer if Iran attempts to reach that threshold clandestinely by a so-called sneak out.
If attacked now, Iran would merely reconstitute its nuclear program, with the benefit of an unshackled economy. International sanction regimes would collapse as a result of a preventative strike by the US and/or Israel. Again, Israel doesn’t even have the capability to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program on its own.[/quote]
Bombing the shit out of their known nuclear facilities would be a major set back to them. Sure they would try to rebuild and be sneaker about it to boot, but the only real, honest way we are going to prevent Iran from getting ‘the bomb’ is by force.
All the rest of this is just posturing and delaying the inevitable. It’s better than nothing, I guess. Nobody is going to step up to the plate and do what needs to be done, so some politics to keep the dog on the leash is better then letting it run loose. But the only actual, real way to prevent Iran from achieving it’s goal is to take out it’s program.
And who knows, maybe obama is right and sometime before the 15 year mark, they will have a change of heart and become our best buddies in the whole world.
As far as Israel doing it, I am pretty sure they are plenty capable of taking care of it. Nobody but a very select few know what their actual capabilities are. And if anybody in the world has the balls to face down Iran, it’s Israel.
This is all hypothetical in the end. We say ‘all options’ are on the table, but that’s bullshit. Obama would sooner attack Israel than Iran.[/quote]
Again, refer to my long post at the top of page 17. I’m not going to hold your hand and walk you through my line of reasoning only to have it ignored yet again.
They’re incapable of destroying the underground and hardened facilities at Natanz and Fordow without U.S. ordinance. Basic defense analysis using open source intelligence makes that much clear. Israel would also be hard pressed to even get air assets to Iranian airspace, as it has no aircraft carriers. Look at the geography of the region and the limited range of its aircraft. An operation against Iran’s nuclear program is not comparable to the strikes against the above ground Iraqi and Syrian nuclear reactors at Osirak and Surai Deir ez-Zor, respectively.[/quote]
I understand your tortured reasoning just fine, I just disagree. Sure their under ground facilities may be secure, but most of their facilities are above ground. And we do have the capabilities to hit underground facilities depending on how deep. Even assuming those facilities are impervious, destroying most of their facilities would dictate a major setback.
It’s a pipe dream anyways, nobody has the balls to do what really needs to be done. We are pursuing diplomacy with the terminally undiplomatic.
And nobody knows the full capability of the Israeli military, not even you.
