[quote]hedo wrote:
[…]3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization
[…]
When you don’t have young workers to replace the older ones, you have to import them. The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today, the Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates.[/quote]
That is incorrect. Germany has currently a muslim population of 3%.
http://www.deutschland.de/aufeinenblick/uebersicht.php?lang=2
That at least for Germany, is inaccurate. Even if all Muslims would vote for one party in an election (kids and all), they would be well below the 5% hurdle set by German law for proportional representation in any of its parliaments.
Also, I would have liked to see evidence for the claim that the discussion regarding the Iraq war in Germany was influenced by the number of Muslims in the country. I am German, read German newspapers daily and left Germany only shortly before the war. And believe me - there was fear of a war and a quagmire; but not of Muslim unrest in Germany.
Again, questionable numbers. While admitting that the non-western population in the NL will increase from ca. 10% to ca. 17% by 2050 (with an increase of the western immigrant population aswell), the report ‘Forecasting the population with a foreign
background in the Netherlands’ states: “It is expected that especially
for non-western women fertility rates at young ages will decline. This is in line with the
expected increase in educational level and labour force participation. Moreover, the
minimum required age for marriage migration has been increased to 21 years. For
Turkish and African women it is expected that the average age at childbearing will
increase, though not to the same extent as native women. For the other groups it is
expected that the age-specific fertility rates will converge to the overall average level.”
http://forum.europa.eu.int/irc/dsis/jointestatunece/info/data/paper_alders.pdf
I would see that last statement about ‘dying’ as an oversimplification. Indeed, more traditional and religious societies tend to have higher birthrates - normally in conjunction with less rights and education for girls and women. Funnily enough, the example of the Netherlands (see source above), with education and civil rights for immigrant women, birthrates seem to decrease.
Last time I checked, Japan had ~125 million inhabitants. ‘losing’ 50% of that seems a bit unlikely - but if someone explains me the maths…
[quote]Because Japan has a very different society than Europe, they refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just shutting down. Japan has already closed 2000 schools, and is closing them down at the rate of 300 per year. Japan is also aging very rapidly. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any idea about how to run an economy with those demographics.
Europe and Japan, which comprise two of the world’s major economic engines, aren’t merely in recession, they’re shutting down. This will have a huge impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning to happen. Why are the birthrates so low? There is a direct correlation between abandonment of traditional religious society and a drop in birth rate, and Christianity in Europe is becoming irrelevant. The second reason is economic. When the birth rate drops below replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller group of working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets worse. These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly held in regards to having families and raising children.[/quote]
Again an interesting statement, but I fail to see evidence of causation, even correlation between religion and fertility - rather, as the Dutch example above (and the Chinese below) seems to show there is a correlation of education (of women) and a drop fertility rates.[quote]
[…]
China and India do not have declining populations.
[/quote]Yeah, but China has massive change ahead due to its aging population. And, at least according to these official Chinese figures (and other sources if you look), birthrates have massively dropped and mothers are getting older. Oh, and my hypothesis regarding a correlation with education is supported as well…
http://english.gov.cn/2005-08/08/content_27315.htm
In summary - I find the statements a bit convoluted, correlations are assumed but not proven and some of the underlying numbers are plainly wrong.
When was that written? The UK just decided today to send 1400 additional troops to Afghanistan, Iraq stays in turmoil, I haven’t heard any ‘good things’ from the Saudis, and Lebanon is pretty much fucked at the moment.
[quote] […]
[…]
In general, everyone in Europe just wants it to last a while longer. Europeans have a real talent for living. They don’t want to work very hard. The average European worker gets 400 more hours of vacation time per year than Americans. They don’t want to work and they don’t want to make any of the changes needed to revive their economies.
[/quote]Yet, productivity in France eg., is not that much lower than in the States, with Germany, the UK and Italy not far behind. If that means that with much more vacations you can be still reasonably productive - I know why I’m happy to live in the EU. 
[quote]The summer after 9/11, France lost 15,000 people in a heat wave. In August, the country basically shuts down when everyone goes on vacation. That year, a severe heat wave struck and 15,000 elderly people living in nursing homes and hospitals died. Their children didn’t even leave the beaches to come back and take care of the bodies. Institutions had to scramble to find enough refrigeration units to hold the bodies until people came to claim them.
This loss of life was five times bigger than 9/11 in America, yet it didn’t trigger any change in French society. When birth rates are so low, it creates a tremendous tax burden on the young. Under those circumstances, keeping mom and dad alive is not an attractive option. That’s why euthanasia is becoming so popular in most European countries. The only country that doesn’t permit (and even encourage) euthanasia is Germany, because of all the baggage from World War II.[/quote]
Inaccurate again: Only in Belgium and the Netherlands the practice is legalized - and in Switzerland, but that is not an EU country.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2600923.stm
Wow, can’t really find the words to comment. The number of countries wanting to join (and joining) EU and Euro-zone isn’t exactly declining. Also, the Euro is firmly establishing itself as a reserve currency - competing with the dollar. The more I read this article, the more I think it’s a bit outdated.[quote]
[…]
Ultimately, it’s an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture, we become just like the Europeans. The culture war is the whole ballgame. If we lose it, there isn’t another America to pull us out. [/quote]
Oh my. I see some Fukuyama in there - who has by now turned against the current administration.
Hm, all in all: shaky, outdated and sometimes simply wrong numbers; a weird mix of postulated correlations and lack of sources and evidence; some valid observations, but with sometimes really funny conclusions.
I see why it’s a fascinating read (spent a whole evening writing about it myself) - and I understand why some will like it, as it sounds indeed like an accurate piece of reporting. But based on how wrong some of the facts are, it shows significant lacks of knowledge on the EU and its status, combined with a bit of spin towards a traditionalist ‘clash of civilizations’ view; which has been outdated by current events and new data.
Makkun