An interesting handicap from Red State:
http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/8/1/0524/21799
2008 Weekly Presidential Rankings - Week 10 - 8/1 to 8/7
By: Tim Saler ? Section: Diaries
Promoted from the diaries.
Here’s this week’s 2008 presidential rankings:
US Sen. George Allen (Virginia)
Gov. Mike Huckabee (Arkansas)
US Sen. John McCain (Arizona)
US Sen. Sam Brownback (Kansas)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)
Explanations for each pick below the fold.
Aug 1st, 2005: 09:14:32
Here’s this week’s 2008 presidential rankings:
Republicans
- US Sen. George Allen (Virginia)
Allen is maintaining his solid conservative credentials, breaking ranks with many influential members of his party in opposing the Kohl amendment to S. 397, the gun manufacturer liability bill, which requires trigger locks to be issued with handguns. Only the most reliable conservatives voted against the amendment. Even Sam Brownback, often considered the ideal hard-core conservative candidate in the 2008 field, voted in favor of the amendment. This will almost undoubtedly come up in campaign ads during the primaries, since gun rights are a very powerful issue with conservative activist voters. More and more Republicans are coming to the conclusion that, at least at this point, Allen is the best consensus candidate who is sufficiently conservative to satisfy the base.
- Gov. Mike Huckabee (Arkansas)
Since Huckabee doesn’t have a voting record, unlike the senators in the field, he is going to be able to shift his positions a little more. He doesn’t have to worry about people going through his votes and checking to see if he’s voted a certain way on issues that would be unpopular with the base.
Because of this, Huckabee can come out on the right side of virtually every issue that comes up in Congress between now and then. It’s a very enviable position, as one of the highest profile governors in the party. Huckabee’s impressive record with education reform in Arkansas is also something that will probably find its way into general election campaign ads, if Huckabee gets that far, because suburban swing voters regularly consider education one of their top issues come election time.
- US Sen. John McCain (Arizona)
Fiscal conservatives are starting to come around with McCain, supporting him more strongly than any other base group within the party. McCain has always had a nose for pork, and he is a nearly constant crusader against it. It could be argued fairly effectively, actually, that McCain is the true heir to Barry Goldwater’s political legacy, rather than Ronald Reagan. Consider that they are both fiscal conservatives who have less than pleasant feelings for the “religious right,” which doesn’t like them very much either. Goldwater is still a hero to many Republican activists, and linking himself with Goldwater’s legacy might be a ticket to the nomination come 2008.
- US Sen. Sam Brownback (Kansas)
Conservative activists are upset with many Republicans for their support for federally-funded stem cell research. The most recent convert to the position is Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who, according to many, has completely blown his chances to be nominated for President in 2008. Brownback has been the principal opponent to the legislation in the Senate that would expand federally-funded stem cell research, and it’s paying off for him in political dividends. He is now in sole possession, based on voting record and political viability, of social conservatives now that Santorum has gotten out, and then gotten back in - kind of - the race already. Santorum won’t run, though, and Brownback looks just about set to walk away with social conservatives. His vote for trigger locks might hurt him with some NRA voters though.
- Gov. Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)
In terms of the popular political rhetoric of the present, which will obviously change - perhaps dramatically - between now and the primary, most of the attacks on Republicans that actually resonate with voters simply don’t apply to Pawlenty. He has said that he believes it’s possible to be opinionated and strong in your beliefs without being a jerk, and that’s precisely what Pawlenty has attempted to do while in office. He faces a re-election battle in 2006 that he could theoretically lose if the backlash against the government shutdown comes his way, but with progressives in Minnesota often split between the DFL and a third party, Pawlenty seems reasonably assured to win re-election.
The only problem is that, in running for re-election, Pawlenty may be put on the spot when it comes to some national issues like the war in Iraq, gun control, and abortion - all of which could prove damaging, since the electorate in Minnesota is quite different than that of a Republican presidential primary. Mitt Romney is learning this lesson the hard way right now.