Interesting article from The New Republic – definitely has its perspective a little to the left of center, but I think the observations on the intra-Republican dynamics are very interesting indeed:
WHO WOULD BENEFIT FROM DELAY’S DEMISE? A GUIDE.
DeLay Gratification
by Reihan Salam
Only at TNR Online | Post date 04.14.05
Tom DeLay is bloodied but unbowed. Despite the now-familiar list of allegations surrounding him–the apparent relationships with crooked lobbyist prot?g?s; the dubious and probably illegal campaign-finance runarounds in Texas; the various sweetheart deals for those near and dear that at the very least create “the appearance of impropriety,” to use a phrase from the Clinton wars–DeLay has refused to apologize. Instead, he has offered the crudest clich?s from the disgraced politician’s playbook, for instance pointing his finger at “a huge nationwide concerted effort to destroy everything we believe in”–“we” in this context presumably referring to a group broader and nobler than DeLay and his fellow pigs at the trough.
You can hardly blame DeLay for arguing that liberals are out to get him. Nor can you really blame liberals for being out to get him. He has, after all, been ruthlessly, stunningly effective in achieving his objectives, in the process creating a lot of bad blood. Those allegedly shady corporate dollars funneled to Texans for a Republican Majority Political Action Committee helped knock off quite a few congressional Democrats; and a lot of his most passionate detractors are, without a doubt, partisan Democrats with an axe to grind. This gives DeLay some breathing room. As John Harris has suggested in The Washington Post, it could be that in today’s polarized Washington you can get away with dismissing sharp accusations of wrongdoing as little more than partisan point-scoring:
[i]During Watergate, President Richard M. Nixon was forced to resign when fellow Republicans denounced his coverup as unacceptable. In the current political climate, some critics believe, Democrats and Republicans know that no matter how much the opposition brays, colleagues from a politician's own party are unlikely to join in.
And so despite his many misdeeds, Tom DeLay will get away scot-free.[/i]
Or will he? With the DeLay bloodletting, there’s a chance that “colleagues from a politician’s own party” will indeed join in, with relish. Believe it or not, DeLay’s hard-charging style, his disregard for public opinion, and the shabby compromises of conservative ideals he’s made in order to carry water for this or that special interest–all the qualities that have made him nearly unbeatable in his rock-ribbed Republican home district–have made him strangely unpopular with many fellow Republicans. And so it’s worth asking the question: Cui bono? Below, TNR Online’s guide to who benefits if DeLay gets canned.
George W. Bush. Remember back when Senator Trent Lott became a liability? After sharing some colorful remarks concerning the enduring wisdom of the Dixiecrats’ segregationist stance, a handful of conservative commentators demanded Lott’s resignation from his exalted role as Senate Majority Leader. Being a deeply and profoundly loyal man more interested in standing by friends than currying favor with the electorate, President Bush resisted these slings and arrows and tenaciously defended Lott.
Wait, no. Actually, President Bush cut Lott loose. Shortly after the brouhaha first erupted in December 2002, Bush made his displeasure with Lott clear, saying in no uncertain terms that defending segregation “is offensive” and, worse yet, “wrong.” When Lott stepped down, thanks in no small part to the very public tongue-lashing, Bush thanked Lott for “the very difficult decision” he “made on behalf of the American people.” Pretty soon, Lott was throwing stink bombs from the backbenches as the more presentable Bill Frist took his place. Since then, Lott has kept himself busy condemning Donald Rumsfeld, working with Democrats, and having a devil of a good time. But from President Bush’s perspective, the most important thing is that Trent Lott is no longer embarrassing President Bush. As a result, provided Lott more or less votes the right way and doesn’t immolate himself while gleefully singing the praises of the Iraqi insurgency, Bush is perfectly content to allow his erstwhile ally to waste away in obscurity. Could the same happen with yet another truculent majority leader?
There are crucial differences. Lott was not considered a particularly effective Senate leader. DeLay’s shrewd political instincts and his ability, honed during a long tenure as a bloodthirsty, take-no-prisoners majority whip, to deliver majorities by filling the hearts of recalcitrant Republicans with unspeakable dread is the stuff of legend. More than a few observers believe that DeLay’s legislative prowess has been essential to passage of key elements of the Bush agenda, the Medicare prescription drug benefit, which DeLay rammed down the throats of conservative rebels, being but one example among many.
Still, this cuts both ways. Just as DeLay has been integral to Bush’s successes, his ethical troubles may well damage the administration. Though relatively few Americans are intimately familiar with DeLay’s doings (according to the latest CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll, 26 percent of voters have still never heard of him, and 16 percent have no opinion of the man), the unmistakable odor of corruption wafting from his person has surely contributed to the steep decline in Congress’s approval rating. The most recent numbers from the Associated Press are positively toxic, with 22 percent of voters strongly disapproving of the way Congress “is handling its job” against 5 percent who strongly approve. Taking leaners into account, you’ve got 58 percent of voters delivering the thumbs down. (A month ago, that number was 53.) This can’t possibly help when it comes to passing sweeping Social Security reform, or a future tax-reform proposal for that matter. And so the most important, transformative elements of Bush’s Ownership Society have been placed in grave danger, thanks in part to one unctuous, increasingly unpopular man. The days of passing bills through DeLay-driven shock and awe are yesterday’s news: Congressional rebels are emboldened by DeLay’s weakness, which will inevitably take things from bad to worse. DeLay’s extremely high profile during the Schiavo affair hardly helped matters. Whatever else one thinks of Congressional intervention in the Florida case, it proved deeply unpopular with wide swathes of the American public. While DeLay may have strengthened his street cred with social conservatives, he may well have done this at President Bush’s expense.
What to do? Sacking DeLay might make for a good start. Cleaning house by cleaning the House of petty corruption could strengthen Bush’s credentials as a “reformer with results,” a slogan from long ago that just might come back in style. Bush will thus change the subject from his own failures on the Social Security front and gain precious time to regroup. After installing a new, more attractive leadership, the White House can take a second pass at advancing key policies.
There could, of course, be a backlash if Bush shoves DeLay out. And when given the choice of hunkering down or admitting defeat, this White House has demonstrated, time and again, an unmistakable preference for hunkering down.
But the time for switching things up just might have arrived. Outside the Beltway, DeLay doesn’t have much of a personal constituency; indeed, unlike even the mercurial, notoriously weird Gingrich, DeLay’s name has never been floated as a presidential prospect. There’s still plenty of time between now and 2006 to salvage the Ownership Society. For Bush, getting rid of DeLay might be a first step toward doing just that.
Newt Gingrich and the Gingrichettes. Speaking of Gingrich, it’s worth noting that DeLay’s rise through the Republican ranks involved stepping on a lot of toes, many of which belonged to former Speaker Newt Gingrich. You’ll note the conspicuous absence of Gingrich’s voice from stories of conservatives rallying around DeLay. Ever since 1989, when DeLay backed a Gingrich rival for minority whip, they’ve been on unfriendly terms. Gingrich knew as well as anyone that DeLay’s power grew and grew as Gingrich’s own power waned during the Clinton scandals and the long, painful denouement of his speakership. Staunch social conservatives were DeLay’s best friends back then, thanks in part, ironically enough, to DeLay’s honesty. He was considered unbendingly conservative and willing to tell it like it is. Gingrich, on the other hand, was seen as a flake and an egomaniac. Now the tide appears to be turning.
Though Gingrich has been out of the House for a very long time, those who rose through the hierarchy with him still nurse a grudge against the man who more than anyone else was responsible for Gingrich’s undoing. DeLay has outlasted most of his Gingrichite rivals, who’ve by and large moved on to lucrative consulting gigs. Dick Armey and Bob Walker are long gone, leaving them with no standing to pay DeLay back for all he did to them. But others, like Chris Cox, John Boehner, and John Linder, are still around to remember the ass-kicking delivered unto them by the power-mad DeLay, who figured he’d pulled off a brilliant coup by installing pliable Louisianan Bob Livingston in Gingrich’s place while squelching the hopes of countless others. Cox, Boehner, and Linder are smart and ambitious, and they’ve stewed for years as marginal figures in a DeLay-dominated Republican conference. As they say, elephants never forget (groan). Might they now twist the knife?
Well, they might if they had the power or the influence to do so. The last time Republican coup plotters had any serious power was when DeLay was one of them, back in 1997. Now the coup plotter rules them all, and he’s not about to let lesser coup plotters fester in the background. Of the three, Boehner, chairman of the Education and the Workforce Committee, is probably the most formidable. He’s even been mentioned as a possible successor to Speaker Hastert. But don’t hold your breath.
Christopher Shays. Last time you heard from Shays, he was blasting his fellow Republicans over federal intervention in the Schiavo case, claiming that the GOP had become “a party of theocracy.” Naturally, this tickled liberals and won Shays many admirers among DeLay-hating editorialists. Having faced a serious, well-funded Democratic opponent for the first time in ages last November, Shays, who represents a liberal district in Connecticut, has reason to fear early retirement in 2006. Ostentatiously picking fights with the Republican leadership seems like a good way to curry favor with the growing number of limousine liberals in his district.
So now, shockingly enough, Shays has trained his less-than-formidable firepower on DeLay himself. With enemies like this, DeLay won’t need friends. Right though he may be that DeLay’s “conduct is hurting the Republican Party,” not to mention “hurting any Republican who is up for reelection,” particularly those from marginal districts trending Democratic, Shays has about as much credibility with conservatives as George Soros. In other words, Shays may have plenty to gain from seeing DeLay go down; but he’s not going to be the one to make it happen.
Eric Cantor. Now if Representative Cantor turned on DeLay, that would be news. Cantor, currently Chief Deputy Majority Whip, has enjoyed a rise through the ranks invariably described as “meteoric,” and deservedly so. He’s been disbursing campaign cash to fellow Republicans like a seasoned professional, winning friends all the while. As a DeLay disciple, he’s gone above and beyond the call of duty, defending his boss with a rottweiler-like tenacity unmatched by his colleagues. In public, he’s shown a serene confidence that DeLay will beat the rap. In private … well, who knows what Cantor is saying in private? Ask Mrs. Cantor.
What one can say with great confidence is that when the dust settles, Cantor will come out smelling like roses under pretty much any imaginable set of circumstances. Say DeLay survives: Cantor will be rewarded for his loyalty. On the off chance DeLay’s malfeasance catches up with him, Cantor will be there to pick up the pieces: If Roy Blunt, the current majority whip, takes over for DeLay, and if Bush is hoping for a new, youthful face for the House Republicans, he could–let’s get ahead of ourselves for just a moment–lean on the right people to make Cantor the new majority whip: that is, the kinder, gentler DeLay.
Roy Blunt. How interesting. Tom DeLay is, shall we say, known for his assiduous efforts to cultivate a friendly reception from key K Street lobbyists. He has built a unique and constructive working relationship with these lobbyists, and now a certain congressman from Missouri named Roy Blunt, also known as the House Majority Whip, DeLay’s second-in-command, is evidently trying to do the same. Obviously, this has been going on for a long time, and there’s nothing remotely untoward about it. Still, it’s interesting to note that Blunt and his Senate counterpart, Mitch McConnell, the brilliant parliamentary tactician widely seen as the heir apparent to Frist, are joining forces and holding strategy sessions with K Street movers and shakers. Might Blunt be letting lobbyists know that he’s a safe pair of hands, and that he can mind the store whether or not DeLay is taking lumps over trifling ethical matters?
At one level, such speculation is silly. Corralling lobbyists is, in the new Washington, an integral part of what whips do. By getting the business community on board, you make it easier to elicit unquestioning obedience from your loyal footsoldiers. The business community, after all, controls the pursestrings. In addition, Blunt has certainly been loyal in public. Indeed, he’s given his defenses of DeLay a DeLay-like spin by adding a hint of menace. When asked about DeLay’s recent troubles, Blunt reportedly suggested that enterprising journalists look into House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s travel history, and try to connect the dots to some of her votes. Ouch.
And yet: DeLay has been an unusually hands-on Majority Leader. It looks like Blunt is taking tentative steps in the direction of spreading his wings. Now is an ideal time.
Zach Wamp. Representative Wamp knows how to hurt people’s feelings. Consider the following statement, recorded for posterity by Roll Call:
“I don’t want to run over anybody to get where I’m going,” Wamp said. “I look forward to when you can get into leadership without running over anybody [and] without building a power base centered on money.”
Is Wamp suggesting that certain unnamed individuals in the Republican leadership built power bases “centered on money”? This is the kind of heretical talk that garners attention and that gets you a grisly knife wound in the back. Wamp has even dared to suggest that if DeLay’s troubles get worse, the Majority Leader might lose the confidence of House Republicans. This is blindingly obvious, and yet it’s significant that Wamp broke the code of silence and contemplated, very cautiously, the remote possibility of DeLay’s ouster. Why? Because unlike Chris Shays, Wamp is not a northeastern moderate without a future in the Republican leadership. He’s certainly not particularly well placed, and he does have a reputation for spouting off, but it could be that he’s making a gamble that might pay off.
Along with Representatives Mike Castle and Rob Simmons, both from marginal districts (in Delaware and, of course, Connecticut, respectively), Wamp has refused to unequivocally state that he’s backing DeLay. Assuming DeLay gets through the current imbroglio unscathed, perhaps he will skin Wamp alive and mount his head on a wall. If DeLay doesn’t make it, there’s a slim chance that Wamp will one day get one of those leadership posts he clearly craves.
Mike Pence. What about the conservatives? In the course of delivering the goods for the Bush White House, DeLay has on rare occasions run afoul of the small band of Republican starve-the-beasters. It’s rare that anyone questions DeLay’s conservative bona fides, but there are other committed conservatives without DeLay’s baggage. One of them is Representative Mike Pence of Indiana, the chairman of the Republican Study Committee. Though he’s only led the RSC for a short while, Pence has worked aggressively to raise the group’s profile and assert its prerogatives as “the majority of the majority.”
Might Pence be in a position to bring House Republicans back to their small government roots? Though he’s denied any leadership ambitions, stranger things have happened. Even if DeLay remains in place, his authority and prestige could dwindle, and Pence could fill the void.
George Soros. Soros is, of course, not a Republican. But if DeLay goes, he’ll certainly get at least some of the credit. DeLay defenders have identified Soros as the mastermind behind the plot against their beloved House Majority Leader. And now that Soros is best known for having spent millions of dollars, amassed by the sweat of his currency-speculating brow, in the failed effort to unseat President Bush, he’s joined Hillary Clinton in the ranks of liberals whom conservatives of all stripes love to hate. This is the reason, tragically, why we’ll almost certainly have to endure many more months of DeLay, if not years.
In fact, that could be Soros’s diabolical scheme. Conservatives beware. Knowing that he’s become a ripe target for demonization, Soros might very well want conservatives to stand by their man. In the greatest sucker punch of all time, perhaps Soros hopes for DeLay to remain in place while driving up his negatives just in time for 2006, when, in a coordinated attack, Pelosi, Representative Rahm Emanuel, and other key Democrats will tie congressional Republicans to the DeLay sleaze machine, in the process performing a miracle: delivering Congress to the Democrats for the first time since 1994. How’s that for a “vast left-wing conspiracy”? The American Conservative Union, the Leadership Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and the Family Research Council are thus–get this–the unwitting dupes of Soros, a foreign-born billionaire who wants to legalize the weed!
Or Soros might just be wasting vast sums he could be spending on a new ski chalet, all while saddling the case against the House Majority Leader with baggage it does not need. In which case he would be a happy man if Tom DeLay does in fact step down.
Reihan Salam is a former TNR reporter-researcher.