Choosing a Game Show Door

Off Topic
141

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
If you play this game only one time and do not switch you have exactly 50:50 chance.

If you keep playing it the odds go to the house’s favor, 2/3 – thus the numerous iterations it takes to prove that the odds are 2/3.

It is a gamblers trick to lure you into keep playing with the same strategy of not switching. But, as was pointed out already, you need to ALWAYS switch to get these odds.

Since most of us would only play this game one time it doesn’t matter whether you switch the first time or not.

Does anyone know the series that proves this?[/quote]

now that makes sense.

each door has a 1/3 chance of being right. that will never change.

You pick a door.

one door that had 1/3 chance is eliminated. The remaining door has 1/3 chance. So you’re still have equal chances of winning whether you switch or not.

142

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
If you play this game only one time and do not switch you have exactly 50:50 chance.

If you keep playing it the odds go to the house’s favor, 2/3 – thus the numerous iterations it takes to prove that the odds are 2/3.

It is a gamblers trick to lure you into keep playing with the same strategy of not switching. But, as was pointed out already, you need to ALWAYS switch to get these odds.

Since most of us would only play this game one time it doesn’t matter whether you switch the first time or not.

Does anyone know the series that proves this?[/quote]

Well, no. Doing it exactly once without switching gives you a winning probability of 1/3. The examples here use a large number of iterations because the more times you repeat an experiment, the less likely it is that the experimental probability deviates significantly from the theoretical probability.

143

[quote]Carl Darby wrote:
Well, no. Doing it exactly once without switching gives you a winning probability of 1/3. The examples here use a large number of iterations because the more times you repeat an experiment, the less likely it is that the experimental probability deviates significantly from the theoretical probability.[/quote]

NO.

144

Please support your statement.

145

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
If you play this game only one time and do not switch you have exactly 50:50 chance.

If you keep playing it the odds go to the house’s favor, 2/3 – thus the numerous iterations it takes to prove that the odds are 2/3.

It is a gamblers trick to lure you into keep playing with the same strategy of not switching. But, as was pointed out already, you need to ALWAYS switch to get these odds.

Since most of us would only play this game one time it doesn’t matter whether you switch the first time or not.

Does anyone know the series that proves this?[/quote]

Picking 1 out of 3 doors gives odds of 1/3, but eliminating an incorrect door AFTER you’ve picked somehow magically ups your odds to 1/2?

If the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners played the 2-10 Iowa State Cyclones, you would give 50/50 odds, since there are only two possible outcomes, and they’re only going to play once?

“No, no,” you’d say, “That’s not random. That’s a good football team playing a bad football team!”

Okay, so instead we ask you to reach into an urn with 9,999 black marbles and one white marble. You reach in and grab one, but do not look at it. 9,998 black marbles are removed from the urn, leaving one marble of unknown color in your hand, and one marble of unknown color in the urn. You are asked if you want to keep the marble in your hand, or take the one left in the urn.

You seriously think the odds of each marble being white are 50/50?

“Yes,” you’d say, “The odds of the white marble being in your hand are 1/10,000 over repeated repetitions, but only 1/2 when one repetition is performed!”

Fine, but there are two possible states, one of which has a 9,999/10,000 chance of occurring and one with a 1/10,000 chance of occurring. Those aren’t equal odds.

It’s like drawing one card from a deck of 26 black cards and 1 red card, and then being offered to keep the 1 card you drew or take the 26 you didn’t. You’d apparently claim that the odds of you drawing the one single red card out of 27 cards are the same as you drawing one of 26 blacks cards out of 27 when you only play the game one time.

If you still think so, well, I’m sorry. And I hope for your own sake that you don’t gamble.

146

[quote]tGunslinger wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
If you play this game only one time and do not switch you have exactly 50:50 chance.

If you keep playing it the odds go to the house’s favor, 2/3 – thus the numerous iterations it takes to prove that the odds are 2/3.

It is a gamblers trick to lure you into keep playing with the same strategy of not switching. But, as was pointed out already, you need to ALWAYS switch to get these odds.

Since most of us would only play this game one time it doesn’t matter whether you switch the first time or not.

Does anyone know the series that proves this?

Picking 1 out of 3 doors gives odds of 1/3, but eliminating an incorrect door AFTER you’ve picked somehow magically ups your odds to 1/2?

If the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners played the 2-10 Iowa State Cyclones, you would give 50/50 odds, since there are only two possible outcomes, and they’re only going to play once?

“No, no,” you’d say, “That’s not random. That’s a good football team playing a bad football team!”

Okay, so instead we ask you to reach into an urn with 9,999 black marbles and one white marble. You reach in and grab one, but do not look at it. 9,998 black marbles are removed from the urn, leaving one marble of unknown color in your hand, and one marble of unknown color in the urn. You are asked if you want to keep the marble in your hand, or take the one left in the urn.

You seriously think the odds of each marble being white are 50/50?

“Yes,” you’d say, “The odds of the white marble being in your hand are 1/10,000 over repeated repetitions, but only 1/2 when one repetition is performed!”

Fine, but there are two possible states, one of which has a 9,999/10,000 chance of occurring and one with a 1/10,000 chance of occurring. Those aren’t equal odds.

It’s like drawing one card from a deck of 26 black cards and 1 red card, and then being offered to keep the 1 card you drew or take the 26 you didn’t. You’d apparently claim that the odds of you drawing the one single red card out of 27 cards are the same as you drawing one of 26 blacks cards out of 27 when you only play the game one time.

If you still think so, well, I’m sorry. And I hope for your own sake that you don’t gamble.[/quote]

/thread

147

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
If you play this game only one time and do not switch you have exactly 50:50 chance.

If you keep playing it the odds go to the house’s favor, 2/3 – thus the numerous iterations it takes to prove that the odds are 2/3.

It is a gamblers trick to lure you into keep playing with the same strategy of not switching. But, as was pointed out already, you need to ALWAYS switch to get these odds.

Since most of us would only play this game one time it doesn’t matter whether you switch the first time or not.

Does anyone know the series that proves this?[/quote]

Gambler’s Fallacy

Each time you play the game, your odds are the same, since each game is independent. For example, do you think the odds are different in the lottery if you pick different numbers every day, or if you stay with the same ones?

148

Refer to “Obvious Game”. It is the exact same game as when the host shows you what is behind one of the doors you don’t pick. The exact same odds of winning in regards to staying or switching.

149

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
If you play this game only one time and do not switch you have exactly 50:50 chance.

If you keep playing it the odds go to the house’s favor, 2/3 – thus the numerous iterations it takes to prove that the odds are 2/3.[/quote]

Wow, that’s pretty stupid.

Each game is independent from all others. The only way numerous iterations could show 2/3 odds for switching is if every game has a 2/3 odds for switching. Which they do.

If I flip a coin, how many iterations do I need before “heads” shows me a 2/3 odd?

Dumbass.

Note: I’ll play the 100 door version with you ONCE. Since a single game gives you 50:50 odds, you shouldn’t mind playing a single one, right? 20 bucks? The md5 is still there, pick your door.

150

[quote]pookie wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
If you play this game only one time and do not switch you have exactly 50:50 chance.

If you keep playing it the odds go to the house’s favor, 2/3 – thus the numerous iterations it takes to prove that the odds are 2/3.

Wow, that’s pretty stupid.

Each game is independent from all others. The only way numerous iterations could show 2/3 odds for switching is if every game has a 2/3 odds for switching. Which they do.

If I flip a coin, how many iterations do I need before “heads” shows me a 2/3 odd?

Dumbass.

Note: I’ll play the 100 door version with you ONCE. Since a single game gives you 50:50 odds, you shouldn’t mind playing a single one, right? 20 bucks? The md5 is still there, pick your door.

[/quote]

I give up. I ran the spreadsheet. It doesnt lie. Swap doors and you win 2/3 of the time (but only after multiple iterations).

But you only get one iteration on the game show.

So I’m still right in that either swapping or not swapping is a 50/50 chance when the hosts asks you, motherfucker.

Sort of.

Muahhahahaha!