[quote]Jeff_with_a_G wrote:
rainjack wrote:
Manufacturing is up. Personal income is up. Almost everything is up. This is not a paper boom like we had under Clinton. I’m not sure of the illusion you are blaming this on. The global economy is on fire. Japans index closed at a 5 year high. China is a freaking furnace, the Dow is closing in on 11,000. If this is an illusion - Bush and Co. can hardly be called stupid, or morons. Evil genius wold fit him better.
1939 - 1941. All government sponsored job growth. Translation? TVA, WPA, etc. were all governemt work progams designed to get people back to work. WHo was pauying these wages? Paying for the programs? Deficit spending and taxes. The gorwth was unsustainable, because it was not real growth. It was exclusively a result of the Fed spending shitloads of money.
1942 - 1945. All attributable to the war effort. Little if any domestic real growth. People were actually rationed on what they could consume. So who paid for all of this growth? One entity - the Federal government. How was it financed? Debt. But I though debt was a bad thing - that’s what you are contending about our current boom, aren’t you?
1946 - 1960. Housing boom. Manufacturing boom. Baby boom. All the soldiers came home got married, went to college, bought homes, had tons of kids, and went into gasp debt to buy their homes. Who paid for their college? The Fed. Who gave them home loans - or at the very least guaranteed them? The Fed.
I think you are being very selective in what you are blaming for slow growth. Do you not remember the horrendous tech bubble that burst sucked the life out of the stock market in 2001? That was a paper boom that caused a real bust.
You are conveniently leaving out most of the years that Greenspan has been running the Fed. He has engineered the money supply so that we will rarely top 8% growth. He seems to prefer slow, steady growth of around 4%. And in that time we have not seen anything even approaching double digit inflation either.
Are you changing your tune? You said:
Vietnam wasn’t financed on war bonds (someone correct me if I’m wrong), but the defense industry was so overwhelmed by defense orders that they had to ask other private industries to help — which further boosted the natonal economy.
Now you are saying that it was shit because of historical drops in production in post-war years.
Which is it?
That is not true. Gold is up a whopping 11.52% over the last 52 weeks. The Euro is down the exact same amount over the same period. Coincidence? I don’t know - but blaming Bush for the rise in gold prices because of debt financing is more than a little myopic.
SO the numbers mean nothing. It is your contention that things are so bad that people are just giving up and dropping off the radar? I would be willing to bet a significant amount of cash that there are more people dropping off the radar due to self-employment than there are poor out of work saps that give up and quit.
If you base the weakness of the economy on unsupported theories and twisted logic - you are the one barking up the wrong tree.
Manufacturing is up—almost totally connected to the housing boom which is almost exclusively debt financing.
Personal income is up? According to who? I do know that we recently, as a nation, went into NEGATIVE spending. That is, regardless of what people make, they’re spending more than they make. Deficit spending on a national scale. That’s good.
Of course, Japan is growing. They’re recovering from a period of massive deflation. Their economy has a long way to go before they get back to break even.
This is not a paper boom? Considering that everyone, the government and private households alike, are buying everything on credit I’m not sure what else you’d call it?
The global economy is in the black due almost exclusively to the growth in Asia. China, specifically. The problem is that China isn’t buying anything from us. They’re gobbling up raw materials and selling it to us. How the hell does that do us any good? All of our money is going out. Our trade deficit is downright frightening.
I remember back in 1999-2000 when the Dow was over 11,000 and the Nasdaq was over 5000. Now we’re approaching 11,000 AGAIN. Woohoo.
Like I said, WWII was financed on war bonds. Private people, like our grandparents, bought bonds from the government. So, the people financed the war. It wasn’t real growth? The entire country was engaged in one thing—building shit. You seem to think that manufacturing is the holy grail of growth, so there you go.
My original point was that “all prior wars created economic booms.” And WWII definitely did. Of course, it was due to government spending, but they were spending it HERE. No one besides domestic companies were profiting. Everything was made right here.
I said the late 70’s and early-80’s were shit. Vietnam ended in '75. The economy was up DURING the war.
And I don’t blame Bush for debt financing. I do, however, have a problem with him taking credit for “a great economy” when what growth is taking place has nothing to do with him and is growing in spite of him and his monumental deficit spending.
If you think I base my opinions on unsupported theories, then I’ll have to tell my Econ professor that he’s full of shit.[/quote]
If your econ professor is telling you the economy is in a recession you should tell him he is full of shit.
Then go to the finance office and get a refund for the class.