[quote]hspder wrote:
Domestically, I don’t expect to see many differences in the next decade. I’m reasonably certain the GOP will retain control of government, including the Presidency – I do not see any charismatic progressive candidate emerging any time soon. We will be living through Reaganism for quite a while still, even though I hope that the next president drinks a little bit less of the neocon Kool-Aid.[/quote]
Agreed. However, I think you needn’t hope for less of a kool-aid drinker. I don’t think people are gung ho about our foreign policy, I think most agree with the ‘stay the course’ line of thought. Do you see any more cowboys to put in the White House?
Wow, how many Ph.D.s did you use to come up with that prediction? ![]()
[quote]Why is this so important politically?
China, the US and Europe have a symbiotic relationship, in the sense that it is in all of our best interests that we keep our economies afloat and the balance of power intact. That means that, most probably, we will have more of the same, because the alternatives are simply too scary.
We won’t be able to keep this up for that long, so one of two things will happen: either China, the US and Europe do undergo a hard landing in one fell swoop and the whole planet goes through an economic recession the likes of which we have never seen – maybe we will go back to the world of the 1930s, except with China in the position the UK was at the time – or we get our asses all saved by a charismatic, intelligent, resourceful leader that shows up out of nowhere.
Although I’d prefer the latter, I honestly can’t see where the heck we are going to dig up such a leader from, much less how is s/he going to get elected. Worse: in order for us to have a good leader, we might need also an equally “good” nemesis. [/quote]
So, China’s economy collapses and unless the economic second coming happens, the world goes to hell? What about India? Also, do you think Mexico can continue to wallow in economic mediocrity forever or would China’s collapse be a boon to them? Not to suggest that India or Mexico could equal China economically, more that rather than a centralized US/China economy, it will be forced to become more global. The average American (or Chinese) businessman may not be able to smell the smoke, but he’ll sure as hell get his feet out of the fire before he gets burned.
I’m not trying to smooth everything over, but you seem to have a penchant for doomsday economic scenarios. China almost certainly will collapse, it won’t be good. We probably won’t be teaching our children to hoard toilet paper or can their own food though.