06 Electoral Predictions?

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
The problem with the '06 races is that the GOP deserves to lose – but the Dems don’t deserve to win…[/quote]

That sums it up nicely.

[quote]100meters wrote:
hedo wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
hedo wrote:
The majority has to want change, not just the fringe.

I agree that the majority has to want change but I would not call 49% of our country ‘the fringe’.

The GOP was not ‘the fringe’ before 1994 and neither are the Democrats today.

The fringe of the Democratic party are setting the agenda for the party. The moderate Democrat doesn’t really stand a chance any longer. The middle class no longer belongs to the Dems as the ideals of the middle class no longer mirror those of the democratic party. The middle class was lost after the 2000 elections for the Dems.

The majority is not looking for a broad shake up of the legislature. In 1994 they were.

Not many incumbent senators are behind.

Congrssional races seem to be tightening as Nov. gets closer and in a close race the incumbent has the advantage.

Define the fringe. Who are “they” and what positions specifically are totally out of touch with the mainstream.[/quote]

You are an excellent example of a fringe Democrat. You claim to be independent but your idealogy is very far left…to the point you will support a candidate you don’t really like simply because he is a not a Republican.

Cutting and running is a major fringe topic. Terrorism is a “law enforcement issue” is a fringe idea. Raising taxes is not supported by the majority but is very popular in the Democratic party. Impeaching Bush…fringe idea. Open borders. Education without accountability. Thinking you are smarter then the voters and if they just understood your platform they would vote for you…fringe. Not drilling in the Gulf and Alaska…fringe.

Need I go on. Pretty much the entire Strong and Smart platform.

Srick with it. I am sure it will work out for you guys.

[quote]100meters wrote:
hedo wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

You certainly know how to pull out the outlier don’t you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

That was the only poll at 18% – the others two recent polls were at 8% and 5%, respectively, with earlier ones from this month at around 6% as well. Unless I missed some major political flub or there’s an amazingly effective ad campaign running, I’d guess the outlier is wrong.

It’s the most recent poll? The context was closing the gap? Hello?

Care to place a wager on whether the next poll is closer to this outlier poll or to 6%?

Goodness, I apologized already for posting the current relevant info didn’t I?

So the answer is no, you don’t want to wager that the next poll will be closer to 6% than to 18%? Heck, I would be willing to say it will be closer to even than to 18%…

I’ll guess it’s within the average of 9 percent…

By the way BB, could you tell hedo that the poll I gave was (most)recent? He’s gone nuts…

Funny coming from the resident moonbat.

Your Harris prediction was of course wrong.

Try rereading your posts…keep up with the adults.

You think Harris will win in Nov? I’ll put 5 dollar on that![/quote]

Sure send it to the RNC. If she loses I’ll send mine to the DNC…fair enough?

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
An incumbent is more likely to die in office than to lose re-election.

*Most politicians that think they are going to lose re-election bow out.

Someone should have told Tom Daschle about that. Check that…I enjoyed watching him lose. [/quote]

I did not care either way.

hedo,

“Open borders” is more a mainstream capitalist idea than a fringe democrat idea.

Think about it.

If big business did not fully support open borders then they would be closed.

Serious question:
Who builds the perimeter fences if we throw out all the illegals and close the borders?

[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
hedo,

“Open borders” is more a mainstream capitalist idea than a fringe democrat idea.

Think about it.

If big business did not fully support open borders then they would be closed.

Serious question:
Who builds the perimeter fences if we throw out all the illegals and close the borders?[/quote]

The lowest bidder would build them. If nobody can use “illegal” labor and must pay prevailing wage then labor costs will be the same for all.

Heavy construction isn’t as labor intensive as residential building. The proposed design I saw looked like a small highway barrier. Modular assembly with heavy equipment. Much less labor.

With regard to open borders most of the illegal immigrant protests I have seen did not seem to be organized by your run of the mill capitalist. The open borders I am referencing are persmissable illegal immigration as opposed to legal immigration.

[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
Serious question:
Who builds the perimeter fences if we throw out all the illegals and close the borders?[/quote]

Wait…let me guess. Haliburton gets the contract in a no-bid award.

Open borders - and instant amnesty are embraced by both extremes. The right sees tons of cheap labor. The left sees fresh new ignorant voters.

I thnk they should seal the border, and only allow immigration through a very strict process including medical tests.

We are having outbreaks of tuberculosis because of the govt’s liberal views on illegal immigration.

santorum still “closing the gap”
back 14 points now in this most recent poll.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/15611356.htm